Sabre Rattling

Embattled from Alberta over Tocchet

The Batle of Alberta -- Rattled

Matt, over at The Batle of Alberta has some great commentary on things I left out of my rant from yesterday.  I'm glad that my little hissy fit has uncovered some others who are at least sympathetic to my vaguely radical stance that people should be able to live in peace without fear of reprisal. 

He rightly points out the Mr. Tocchet's biggest crime is his violating his employment contract with the NHL's prohibition on engaging in illegal activity.  Of course, just to be consistent on that point Dany Heatley should not be able to play hockey for having broken the speed limit while operating an automobile.  :)

Good stuff over there, please check it out.

Ta,

ZOMG! People in Hockey Place Bets!

I don't expect this to be one of my more popular posts, and, possibly might lose me some respect within this circle of commentators.  I've refrained here on many occasions to get into subjects that would draw attention to my political/philosophical views, trying instead to keep the discussion focused primarily on the Sabres in specific and the sport in general.  If anyone wants to know my politics there's a slew of articles here that will elucidate them in painstaking detail. 

So, that said, I find it really sad that Rick Tocchet, et. al. are facing all sorts of charges and, most probably, jail time because of placing bets on sporting events.  Personally, I don't have a lot of respect for the law as a mechanism for dispensing justice.  Hell, that statement alone would take weeks of writing extensively just to parse the words used to convey the depth of meaning that I'm implying.  Defining the word justice alone, outside of the context of human-enforced law is worthy of multiple blog posts in and of itself.

Morality (defined as that which separates right from wrong) cannot be legislated.  Gambling is no more wrong than obeying the speed limit is right.  Both conditions are arbitrarily defined by those who have the privilege to enforce that definition.  So, the fact that this has become an issue is nothing more than noise in the service of the state trying to justify it's own existence and a way for busy-body do-gooders to force their desires and worldview onto someone else.  This is a process I despise, and yet, unfortunately it is de rigeur and becoming even more so everywhere I turn.  The cops involved in this investigation will say that they are only enforcing 'the will of the people,' all of whom they were empowered to 'protect and serve.'   It's disturbing that we no longer have 'peace officers' but 'law enforcement officers.'  There are two fundamentally different functions at play there.  The former are charged with keeping the peace via crime investigation and dispute resolution, while the latter are charged with enforcing the rules.  The former truly serve the people while the latter only serve the rule makers. 

In the same week where Britney Spears is hounded for the non-crime of not having her child in a car seat, we have another non-crime blazing across the headlines in the hockey world, namely a bunch of people getting together and betting with their own money on the outcome of sporting events they are not personally involved in.

Looking at this from an economic perspective, is placing a bet on the outcome of a football game really fundamentally different than choosing to start a business selling shoes?  Both are educated guesses about the future events.. one the relative number of points scored by a football team, the other the amount of money people will spend buying particular shoes.  All of human endeavor is a guess about future events.  Again, why is there a distinction between these types of human behavior, where there is no theft of property (communists please stay quiet, property and profit are not theft no matter how many times you say it!!!!!).

Politically, I belong to a small group of people who consider themselves anarcho-capitalists, and who believe the absolute sovereignty of the individual forms the basis for all constructive and peaceful human endeavors.  Spend some time at the Mises Institute for a primer.

The State of New Jersey is acting like the aggressive bunch of thugs and highwaymen it truly is here.  One of the axioms I live my life by is "Don't Steal (or kill).  The government hates competition."  I find a tremendous amount of irony in the fact that state run lotteries have the worst odds of winning of any game I know of and yet those are legal, while playing roulette or blackjack at a casino is venal and wrong (even though the house odds in those games are 5.26% and ~0.5% respectively, depending on the rules).  One of the bright spots about the rise of Poker as an acceptable activity is that some of the PR damage to the league might be mitigated. 

So, these people will either go to jail or be made to prostrate themselves on the mercy of the public opinion court (doing community service or some other way of 'repaying society,' even though they probably didn't cheat anybody) all for engaging what is a perfectly normal and reasonable human behavior.

So, again, could someone please explain to me why we should give a rat's ass about this? 

Ta,

p.s. I understand James Mirtle's issue with this.  There will be a certain amount of righteous indignation thrown around and false virtuousness pandered to that will be wholly disgusting and nigh inappropriate... along with being highly effective propaganda for the Nanny State.  It will suck for the game, the league, and the fans.  ESPN will have a field day... that piece of leftist shite.

p.p.s.  I'm sure that the police in question have some ulterior motives for leaking this to the public... look for some New Jersey DA to make a run towards a higher office based on this incident.  It's commonplace for DA's to rise politically on the backs of people involved in this kind of 'criminal activity.'  That fascist blowhard Guiliani did it, Eliot Spitzer is following in the sewer Rudy carved and I'm sure there's someone in Jersey wanting to emulate his heroes.  After all, if Spitzer can get Martha Stewart, why can't some other tax-funded leech get The Great One?

p.p.p.s.  If you can't tell, part of the reason I didn't want to comment on this is that it's really no good for my blood pressure.  I stopped blogging about current events and politics because it was too painful and I found my days were ruined after I'd finished a post about some horrible thing done by some F$%ktwit government stooge.  So, I really hope that this doesn't end too badly for those involved but my gut feeling is similar to Mr. Mirtle's, that this is going to be a horrible thing for everyone, including hockey fans.

 

 

Ruff and Ready for the Task Ahead

Link: Buffalo News - Lindy Ruff's gift of gab sparks team.

One of the things that solidified my decision for adopting the Buffalo Sabres as my own was that Lindy Ruff was the Head Coach.  Ruff's overall demeanor, wry candor and his ability to dish out the perfect one-liner impressed the hell out of me.  Along with that his ability to extract the most out of his roster, even those who didn't like him, made me one of his staunchest supporters during these past few seasons... the lean and forgettable years.    During those times I wondered seriously if I would continue to follow the Sabres with the same enthusiasm if he was fired, that's how much I identify him with the team.  To me he is similar to Bill Parcells, when he left the Giants and his imprimatur was no longer stamped on them, i didn't care as much as I did before.  During his tenure I became a fan of him and less a fan of the team I had grown up rooting for.   I rooted for the Pats (secretly, of course) when he went there... though there was no way I could support the Tuna while coaching the Jets or Dallas, some things are just not done. 

I never watched Lindy Ruff play hockey, or if I did when I was younger I don't remember it.  But, I remember clearly that as I was falling in love with the sport for the second time in my life that process was inextricably bound to the image of him being behind the bench of the Hardest Working Team in Hockey.  These are my biases, and I wear them proudly. 

I've long held the belief that he was this organization's greatest asset (aside, of course, from the stability brought by Tom Golisano's ownership).  And, this year, he is proving that assessment correct on a number of levels.  There are a number of coaches who are doing a phenomanal job of leading their teams to unexpected success... Tom Renney and Peter Laviolette to name a couple.  But those guys have something that Ruff doesn't have... a bonafide Superstar on their rosters... Jagr and Staal. 

Instead the Sabres have Ruff. 

The proof, for me, of great coaching lies in the special teams and the Sabres are 2nd in the league on the Power Play and 3rd on the Penalty Kill.  As John Vogl's article points out, the Sabres coaching staff is prepared and their work ethic informs the work ethic of the players.  Special Teams is not only discipline and talent, but preparation.  Knowing what the other team's tendancies are is an advantage, and it's one that can only come from great coaching.

So, that's it, my case for why Ruff deserves (at this point) the curse of the Jack Adams Trophy.  But, if I know Lindy, he'll figure out a way to avoid that one as well.

Ta,

Fretting about the Value of "5"

Link: CanucksCorner.com :: Tom Benjamin's NHL Weblog.

Tom Benjamin asks a few questions after having run some numbers about the strengths and weaknesses of the 6 NHL divisions.  He doesn't like the results, which I guess, obfuscate the meaning of accumulated points on a team for team basis.  And, of course, what starts out as a cursory look at the routine differences in quality amongst the six 5 team groupings that make up the NHL turns into a rant about how the NHL is badly run and stupidly organized.  I'll take his question that end his article one at a time (my responses in italics):

Who is the best team in the league?  Whichever one you think is the best, no other definition can possibly be calculated because everyones criteria vis a vis 'bestness' are different.
How should the teams be seeded? The eternal question that has no 'right' answer.  Any seeding system will be 'unfair' to someone, so any system is as good as any other because they are all arbitrary. 
Who should be in the playoffs? Whichever teams fulfill the requirements of the rulebook.  The fact is the schedule has a huge impact on how teams play and prepare for individual games, which affects the outcomes of those games.  Hence changing the schedule (or the division structure) changes the definition of 'playoff worthy."   It's impossible to make the case that, for example, if Atlanta finishes 8th in the East they should not make the playoffs because San Jose is a better team, even though San Jose wound up 9th in the West. 
Who can tell?  I can and anyone who can't is being purposefully obtuse.  The rules are very clearly stated.  Though Tom's analysis will certainly be of help when handicapping individual playoff series.

If every race car was timed on a different track could we determine which one was fastest?  No.  The last time I checked, hockey was not a race.... so what's the point of the analogy?

What is the point of the regular season again?

To sell tickets and advertising and allow 16 of the teams to do the same during the playoffs.  Or am I missing something?

And, finally, why is it that the professional league with the best game has to be the worst run sports league in history?  Wow!  Is your barn empty Tom?  Because that's one damn big straw man you just built! 

I think Tom's implication with the last question was an attempt to say that because the division/conference/playoff seeding system doesn't  1) necessarily pick the 'best' teams to make the playoffs and 2) normalize the difficulty to make the playoffs for each team means that the NHL is badly-run and amateurish.  I won't even go into how much he is deriving from a little more than 1/2 a season's worth of data.  To draw such conclusions from such a small data set is statistically specious.  A more valid approach would be to look at the results from the last time the system was changed up to, but not including, this year and see what the results were.  Then, those data should be compared with the NHL's stated desires for the system and a comparison made. 

I think there's a misconception between what it is that Tom Benjamin (and some of the commenters) wants the NHL to be and what the NHL is.  To be generous to Tom. I think he wants to see an NHL that has a purity to its competition.  That the games be played and the Stanley Cup awarded in such a way that is optimal in a competitive and, for lack of a better term, artistic sense.  A noble desire, certainly, and part of me agrees with him on this.  The problem with that kind of thinking is that there is no good way to know beforehand what the skill level of each team will be and therefore achieve the kind of normality (in the statistical sense of the word) that would maximize the probability of that outcome. 

Personally, I used to care about such things, and make similar arguments, when I was more trustful of rules and laws to manage/manipulate systems.  I don't any longer.  No schedule is fair in that sense.  All groupings of teams into divisions/conferences are arbitrary in some way.  Even games between common opponents have external factors that affect the  outcome.  In short, there's no way to normalize the hardship that the teams go through from October to April.  Once you come to understand that fretting about these differences becomes nothing more than a childish exercise in self-promotion. 

The NHL does not exist to satisfy my, James Mirtle's, Tom Benjamin's or anyone else's view of what a hockey league should look like.  It exists primarily (and I think this  is the thing that galls Tom more than anything else) to make money for those associated with it; owners, players and advertisers.  And, while the league doesn't exist without an audience, that's true, the feedback from the fans matters only insofar as they are not willing to pay attention to it.  For all of the complaining Tom does about the NHL, he's one of their best customers... that's the biggest irony of all.

Hockey may, at times, approach art, or, at least, have moments that transcend the motives stated above.  But, the NHL, is not hockey.  It is simply an organization that puts on games of it.  There are dozens of them around the world.  Find one that does the best job of satisfying your needs and patronize it.  Do they always make the right decisions?  Of course not.  But, obviously they're doing enough things right because we keep tuning in, posting in our blogs and spending our limited amount of time on this planet, above-ground, thinking about it. 

I don't know about you, but I have better things to do with my life than argue over the value of 5 or the redness of red.  Is San Jose better than Atlanta?  Who's 52 points (as of this writing) should be worth more?  It's a fun debate, but the existance of which is not a bad thing.  Actually, it more probably works in the NHL's favor.  After all, if not for their 'mistakes', what would we have to talk about?

Ta,

Edited on 1/30/06 to clarfiy points and clean up errors.

Let's Call This the "Sabres Rule"...

Link: TSN.ca - Columnists - Canada's Sports Leader.

There's a rumor floating around that with next season's rule changes will come this one, which will be added to the section fo the Rulebook on Goal Scoring:

...the first illegal goal scored by the other team [is] to be disallowed.

Along with that the NHL is also considering actually using Nextel's Walkie-Talkie service as opposed to just taking their advertising dollars.  That way they'll have instant communications with all of their video goal judges.  So, that if the guy in Calgary decided to do what he did again Colin Campbell could deal with the situation properly next time...

<distinctive Nextel Beep you can't ignore>
Campbell:  "You're fired."
<distinctive Nextel Beep you can't ignore>

I know Dave Hodge was trying to be funny here, but honestly, it's no laughing matter. 

Ta,

TBN - Sabres predict a profit

Link: Buffalo News - Sabres predict a profit.

Kukla's Korner

An enocuraging article from the Buffalo News this morning regarding the state of the Sabres finances after the first twom onths of the season.  They are projecting (without a playoff berth) a small profit in the range of $200-300k.  Encouraging is too weak a description really.  Bloody fantastic is more apt.  From the depths of bankruptcy and a year-long lockout to the beginnings of a self-sustaining business in three years is nothing short of impressive.  Almost as impressive as the Sabres current 6-game winning streak. 

Those who know me personally (or from my now-abandoned personal blog) know I have a keen interest in things economic, and think of myself as a specific type of economist, namely an Austrian.  So, this side of the game of hockey is of particular interest to me and I'm constantly reviewing the mechanisms of how this game translates into economic terms.   As a believer in the pure power of the unfettered free market the Sabres return to profitability is encouraging.  Granted nothing about the NHL exists in a free market, certainly not in economically socialist America, but given the context of the business, namely the very tough local economy and the competition from other sports and acitivites, the projections for this year imply that management has figured out how to provide a product worth paying for.  That's what profit is, the arbitrage between your cost of production and the willingness of someone to pay for what you are offering.  Without profit there is no reason to continue. 

Revenue sharing will certainly account for part of the Sabres income... they will be subsidized somewhat by the other teams in the league.

But, to my mind that's perfectly fine.  The NHL is a voluntary association, one that just went through a painful reorganization not only with its labor but also within its membership.  The result of that reorganization could have been very different, and one that would have made it a lot tougher for markets like Buffalo to either remain or become viable. 

Does hockey still belong in Buffalo?  I think so.  There was a time when I thought that the Sabres were going to be a casualty of the Federal Reserve's profligate money creation.  But, now, after the lockout and the change in ownership, I don't think that as much anymore.  There will come a time, perhaps sooner than people suspect, when this team will not need revenue sharing to remain viable, and that money will either be provided to another team undergoing a painful transition or not be needed whatsoever. Providing a good value to product ratio is the biggest governing factor in profitability and that's the attitude Mr. Golisano has been trying to instill in both his organization and his team.  Give us a reason to come to the games and we'll give you our money, support and love.  If you lose, lose with dignity and effort and if you win, do so with style, class and talent.  First and foremost give us a reason to care.   

So far this year, I'm more a fan of the guys in the AGH than I've been in a while.  It may just be time to decide on whose jersey I want a copy of....

Ta,

 

Melrose - Sabres Hottest Team in NHL

Link: ESPN.com - Sabres are the hottest team in hockey.

While not the best written endorsement of all time (I'm sure Barry doesn't remember much from high school English classes), it is nice to see some love being thrown Lindy Ruff's boys way.

One of the hottest teams in the NHL is the Buffalo Sabres. The team has won four straight and has just one loss in its last eight games.

One of the big reasons for the Sabres' success is their power play -- they have the fourth-best in the league (21.7 percent). Another reason is their high level of skating, a big plus in the new NHL. Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Ales Kotalik and Tim Connolly are just some of the great skaters.

The team is also stable. It has a good mix of veterans and youngsters. The Sabres also are winning without a 100-percent lineup (Briere and J.P. Dumont are battling injuries), so there is the potential for them to be even better. Scary thought.

An even scarier thought is the return to television of Barry's brown pin-stripe suit... ow!

Later in the article I find the following two paragraphs nigh-prescient considering this evening's news:

We'll find out a lot about Joe Thornton in the coming weeks.

{yeah.. just not in Boston - TL}

As for San Jose ... the Sharks had so many great, young players after the 2003-04 season, I think they thought they didn't have to do much this offseason.

My opinion?  San Jose wins.... I'll channel Barry Melrose here, "Whoever gets the best player wins the trade."  Now the Sharks have the #1 and #2 overall picks from the 1997 draft coming 1-2 down the middle.  That should help solve some of their goal-scoring issues.  Of couse, they'll have even more problems keeping the puck out of their net.

Ta,

Update: Chris at Hockey Country has nailed the essence of this trade in the title of this post. 

Carnie #10: Heading into the Season

Paul over at Kukla's Korner has asked for our thoughts on the perception of the NHL coming into the new season.  Honestly, it's a pretty big task, as it's something I haven't spent much time thinking about.  I'm not a 'big picture' kind of guy, more the "lose the trees for the insects living in the bark" kind of guy.  I know how I perceive the NHL right now, which is pretty positively.  But, living in a place that is the epitome of Not-Hockey Country (North Central Florida) I really don't have any feel for the kind of buzz or non-buzz happening out there. 

My gut feeling, however, is similar to Ben Wright's in that interest in the game in a great number of markets is stronger than it was pre-lockout.  Other markets without a strong hockey presence (those would be the ones Canadians keep saying need to be contracted) will proabably suffer coming out of the gate, but (in the case of Nashville in particular) the franchises with strong teams will recover pretty quickly.  At the same time, though, attendance may be up but revenues will be lower or, at best, flat as most ticket prices have been cut, sometimes drastically in Buffalo's case.  The tough sells are going to be the places with winning traditions who couldn't draw pre-lockout *cough* like New Jersey. *cough*

Paul also asked for some comments on the new marketing campaign, and frankly, I haven't seen enough of it to have an opinion at this point.  From the response over at HFBoards, though, the hardcore fans think it stinks, which is probably a good contrarian indicator, in my opinion.

The media's perception of the NHL has been largely dominated by ESPN's (you really don't want to know what I call ESPN in polite company, it's pretty Un-PC) derisive attitude toward the sport, and  the disassociation with them will not help the average American Football Fan to change his mind, as that is where they get a lot of their information.  Expect even less coverage on ESPN now that they have no advertising dollars riding on pimping the league.  Going the hard route of building a new fan base on a new network is going to take time to see results. 

So far, though, I've been impressed with the way the Sabres have been dealing with the press.  Sabres.com has multiple video and audio interviews available each day post-game/practice.  Both the players and Lindy Ruff have been putting effort into their comments, moreso than previously.  I think they understand the importance of rebuilding a relationship with both the fans and the media.  From a pure marketing standpoint Martin Biron is gold.  He's tremendously charismatic and affable (My wife thinks he's absolutely adorable, btw)/  It's too bad he isn't quite star material on the ice.    The coverage at the Buffalo News has markedly improved since training camp opened and Toni Lydman was acquired.  Coming out of the gate 0-5 however will put the kibosh on the pretty damn fast.  Season ticket sales are already higher than they were in 2003-04, not by much, mind you, but it's a start.

All in all, everyone involved in this sport at this level needed the kind of break we got.  The players, the coaches, the owners, the fans.... everyone.  But, that said, we are heading into uncertain economic times and the NHL may have an extremely steep hill to climb growth-wise because I expect discretionary funds to dry up around the U.S.  Making new friends/fans is going to have to come from the ground up, with a superior bang for the buck.  In my house, the NHL is going to have to compete with my World of Warcrack addiction and I'm a hardcore hockey guy. 

Ta,

What a Shock! Tom B. Hates the Owners

Link: Tom Benjamin's NHL Weblog: Poor Mario.

Ok, this kind of post really ticks me off.  Tom B. does nothing but complain about the state of the NHL now that the labour situation has been resolved, not perfectly, mind you, but resolved.  Nothing is going to make him happy at this point... not even his beloved Canucks winning the cup 4 years in a row.... because then his economic "ideas" (and I use the term 'economic' very loosly) will have been proven false. 

The above-linked post and this one about the revenue sharing system are perfect examples of what I'm talking about when people write before they think.  Mario Lemieux is still lobbying for a new arena and is making his case by saying they are still going to lose $7 million this year.  Tom can't help himself, ripping him for explaining the situation.   Now, I'm no fan of tax-funded stadiums, far from it.  I think it's one of the worst uses of government theft/wealth redistribution, and Tom's commenters who help bring up that issue up deserve some kudos for recognizing at least part of the problem.  But, that said, this is the way the game is played right now and Mario is just doing what he needs to do to try and secure his business in Pittsburgh.  Complaining that Mario and the other owners are 'complaining' and trying to suck up more from everyone involved in this sport is just churlish and adolescent.  Tom's certainly free to comment on it, but when the conversation goes in a direction that is wholly ridiculous it is his responsibility to try and steer it back to reality.

Look at the comments thread, most just pile on the Penguins for 'having spent so much money on free agents.'  Check out this page right here.   Having spent so much money still only brings the Pens payroll up to the 54% projected revenue mark, $28.2 million. $7 million over the minimum.  Sure, they could have spent right at the minimum and pocketed the revenue sharing, but then these self-same people would be ridiculing Mario for not spending enough to bring the fans in the building ("No wonder you're losing money you id10t!") or feeding his dogs with the profit or some other such nonsense.  It's fascinating how Tom B. will spend days defending his latest pet theory about the salary cap or free agency but when blatant stupidity that supports his stance is bandied around he is noticiably absent.  The final commenter understands the situation, the Penguins lease stinks and precludes them from making any money in that arena.  If the city were to agree in principle to a new stadium deal, it would at least give the Penguins a little leverage to renegotiate their current lease and be profitable at the Mellon, possibly obviating the need for a new arena. 

Frankly, I don't really care either way.  I hate tax-funded stadiums.... Hell, I hate taxes, period... for both moral and economic reasons.  But, Mario is just trying to save his business from extinction.  Sure, it's a crappy business, but it's his nonetheless. 

Ta,

NHL Carnie #8

Link: [so.very.obsessed.com: established 2002].

Even though Sabre Rattling isn't represented this week (no one's fault but my own, of course), Heather over at soveryobsessed has posted up the new NHL Blog Carnival for y'all's perusal.  Take a look and do the mouse-clicky thang through all of the great blogs she presents for you.

In addition to the Carnie, Chris Mcmurty over at Hockey Country has his list of the 6 teams we should keep our collective eyes peeled for.  It's a great list, and I love his comments about the leafs.  Jes Golbez also has some cautionary words for Leafs fans as well.  Me?  I happen to thik that using the word interesting to describe the Leafs is akin to the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times."

Ta,