Sabre Rattling

Buffalo News Roundup --Trades and Depth

Link: Buffalo News - Sabres line up and get it done.

Link: Sabres should swing for the fences and trade Biron

Second thing's first.  Bucky Gleason has truly lost his mind.  Thanks to Buffaloed over at HF for taking the words out of my mouth with that thread.  I read that article and had nearly the same reaction... Biron and Pyatt for Brendan Witt?  In who's universe, the old NHL's?  Maybe.

Someone this June is going to regret terribly having over-paid for Brendan Witt, who, if he so desperately wants out of Washington should be playing better.  Oh, maybe that's the problem... he can't.  With all of the injuries to the Vancouver blueline the lack of rumors concerning Witt going there should clue you in as to how highly valued his services will be between now and 3pm Thursday.

Personally, I think there's a possibility of a three-way deal between Buffalo, Phoenix and Edmonton.  It's no secret that Kevin Lowe has been after Marty all season but hasn't offered Darth Regier enough for him to pull the trigger on a deal.  But, the Oil have also been sniffing around CuJo, not that I think they should be, but there it is.  What I can see is a deal or deals that sends Cujo to Edmonton, Biron going to Phoenix and either Derek Morris or Denis Gauthier coming to Buffalo.  The key here is that both Morris and Gauthier are gone at the end of the season and the Dogs may not be able to sign them.  Ergo, they might willing to deal one of them to the Sabres more willingly than Lowe would be willing to part with Matt Greene.   It's a thought and certainly a better return than Hot-Headed Brendan Pylon-Witt.  *sigh*

And he gets paid to write this stuff. 

I got a rock.

Next up, is a great article on how the Sabres are truly the 4 line team that all coaches wish for, most fans proclaim they have, and few GM's ever assemble.  The proof is truly in the stats, which I was looking at the other night.  The first thing that stuck out was that as of right now, Maxim Afinogenov is the Sabres leading scorer with 46 points (15g, 31a, +6).  This puts him on a pace for 67 points in 79 games played.  Moreover, he's done this with only 16:30 minutes of ice-time every night.  A couple of weeks ago the scoring leader was Drury.... or was that Kotalik... no... it was Tim Connolly.

Danny Briere is the only Sabre scoring at greater than a 1ppg pace... 28pts in 27 games and looking like he did before the injury.  The line of him, Dumont and Hecht were outstanding against Boston the other night, just like the line of Roy/Afinogenov/Vanek were smoking during the Leafs game on Friday. 

The interesting thing about this team is the way certain lines interact with certain teams.  It's something I'm going to start looking for down the stretch; to see if there's any qualitative correlation between style of opponent and dominant line du jour.  I'm thinking that there might be. 

Ta,

Replacements, Reinforcements or Regulars?

Link: Buffalo News - Dumont hopes to return Tuesday in New York.

That's the question I have to ask when considering the imminent return of both J.P. Dumont and Taylor Pyatt from long-term injures.  It's been so long and this team has played so well that guys like Jason Pominville, Derek Roy and Danny Paille feel like the regulars while Dumont and Pyatt are the outsiders. 

In case you're wondering, I won't feel that way when Danny Briere returns.  With Goose returning from his head bump and Scud grounded because of his adding Pyatt back into the mix is an easy substitution. 

Dumont, on the other hand, is more of a problem (aside from my ambivalence towards him).  When healthy and motivated he brings a mix of skills to the top lines that no one else on this roster does: sand, hands and a nose for the net.  Pominville has taken his role and mutated it.  In 24 games JPom has 9 goals and 6 assists and, by a wide margin, the best Shooting % on the team.  He's a sniper like Big Al Kotalik, with a heavy shot that really helps drive the power play when he's manning the point.  He too has a good nose for the net, skulking around looking for garbage.  But he doesn't bring the edge that Dumont does.  But, all in all, he's become a very valuable asset to this hockey club.

The obvious thing to do is send Danny Paille back to Rochester allowing him to build on this experience for next season.  That's the most likely course of action when both Pyatt and Dumont are inserted into the lineup.  Of course, Regier could (perish the though) trade a goalie, or waive Andrew Peters to free up a roster spot, but that doesn't seem likely right now, regardless of the rumors in western Canada.  But, when the time comes for Scud or Briere to play one has to think that Pominville is the odd-man out. 

... and that would be a shame.

Before the season began this team was deep at Center, RW and Goalie and short on Defensemen and LW'ers.  Now, the logjam is even worse because unknown/questionable quantities like JPom, Connolly, Kotalik and Afinogenov have proved invaluable to this team's success.  Ugh. The logjam is now a full-fledged beaver dam.

Ruff and Regier are very conservative vis a vis asset management.  Ruff is looking forward to the playoffs where he can see the parade to the trainer's room continuing unabated and wants the insurance of having extra bodies to plug holes.  Regier won't make a move without someone overpaying in return.   I know they both are thinking about how best to navigate the playoffs in such a way as to give us the best chance possible to win it all.  Make no mistake, Lindy Ruff is thinking Stanley Cup and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand the situation.

My gut feeling is that no one will be moved (except maybe a goalie + a prospect like Janik or Novotny) and we'll try and manage around the roster limit with creative use of IR until the roster limit is lifted, almost hoping for a series of small injuries that will allow everyone to rotate into the lineup and stay sharp for the stretch run.

If Biron is traded (perish the thought at this point, dammit, Marty is too important in that room) it will be to a Western Conference team.  No way does Regier give anyone in the East a chance to burn him that way.  We all know the logical partners, the question is how much are those teams willing to pay from their rosters to acquire Smilin' Marty's services.  Honestly, I don't think either Vancouver or Edmonton have the depth to give up anyone of significance to tempt Darth Shrewdness.

If Mair is done for the season (NOOOO!!!) then things are a little easier in terms of roster manipulation, but not in terms of the playoffs.  The 4th line that started the season, Pyatt/Gaustad/Mair could possibly be the difference maker in a series with Toronto or Philly.  Size, speed, sand, the ability to check players making an order of magnitude more money than them and the odd goal... no one else on this roster is capable of all those things. 

*sigh*

Ta,

13 in a Row? .... BYE-RON, YOU SUCK!

Link: Buffalo News - Regier in no hurry to move a goaltender.

Between this article and Bucky Gleason's plea to trade Biron, it looks like my desire to see the Sabres investigate just how much they could get for Ryan Miller on the open market is going to remain unfulfilled.

To me the calculus is very simple.  Keep the goalie the team plays the best for.  A point I made in the Game Recap of Saturday's game is a paraphrasing of my wife's observation about intangibles.:'

We gave Chris Drury a pass early in the season for his lack of production and horrendous +/- because of all of the intangibles he supposedly brought to the table.  Well, let's see, what kind of intangible quality does Biron bring to a team that has won 13 times in a row when he begins the game between the pipes?  Many of those wins were gritty, come-from-behind nail-biters.

While I hate to quote myself on this subject it's hard to argue with my wife here.  This team has grown up with Biron in between the pipes.  With the rash of injuries we've sustained and the amount of time guys like Miller, Dumont and Pyatt have spent on IR there is little worry about us going over our self-imposed, mid-point, Ensure-all-3-Phases-of-Revenue-Sharing-Salary Cap.  Therefore, Marty's salary is not the same kind of issue it was at the beginning of the season.

I know Miller is the 'goalie of the future' but, honestly, the future may be right now.  I'm not trying to get ahead of myself or anything.  This team is in need of a couple of things (a studly #1 d-man at a minimum), but chemistry and camaraderie are not one of them.  Miller is the most valuable of the three goalies.  A true blue-chipper ready to lead a team to a playoff berth or more.  Biron has paid his dues, stuck by this organization and his teammates during the worst of working conditions and for the most part has given them competent to near god-like performance.  Repaying that with a trade after he's been instrumental in the emergence of this team as a potential NHL powerhouse is the height of arrogance.  Not only arrogant, but stupid as well.  This situation is reminding me of why I no longer watch the NFL, a league who's decisions are based more on what a player projects to be and not on what he is.  So many 'superstars' who have the better 'tools' get chance (*cough* Jeff George *cough*) after chance while real, talented, hard-working winners fall through the cracks or are never allowed to get comfortable as 'The Man." 

Do not get me wrong.  I watched, first-hand, Ryan Miller steal 2 points from us on a Thursday night in Tampa early in the season.  He was enormous in the shootout and had me screaming at the top of my lungs in appreciation.  I'm a big fan of the kid and am confident that he is and will be a top goalie in this league for a few years to come.   I just have to wonder if the timing means that he goes to make his fortune and win his Cups with someone else.

But, I'm also a big fan of results.  Concrete examples of that which a person or group has accomplished.  The Sabres current streak is no fluke.  As one of the guys on HF pointed out last night (a notorious Biron-hater ironically enough), the Sabres are 15-2-1 in their past 18 games.  In the end I've come right back around to where I was at the beginning of the season, trading Miller for the best return package maximizes the ability of this team to win right here, right now.  Again, it's not that I don't have confidence that Miller can't produce those results... just that he hasn't. 

Every day this organization gets a little bit closer to 'having arrived' as opposed to 'is arriving.'  They are 2nd in the conference in points, 3rd in the league and have proven that they can beat everyone except Ottawa.  What more needs to be proven before some confidence is shown those who've put in the effort, made the highlight-reel plays or the win-preserving saves (or near saves) ?  There is a time when you have to look and see that not only has someone arrived, but maybe, just maybe, he's been there all along and now the team is worthy of him.

Year after year we bitch that Martin Biron is, at best, an average to above-average goalie, and yet, every year he does something truly amazing, in the process putting his name in the team, if not NHL, record books with jaw-dropping strings of performances (3 straight shutouts, 13 consecutive victories).  In the end, all I can figure is that his biggest fault is he wasn't Dominik Hasek.  I keep hearing that he's not the goalie to lead us to a cup.  Well, if he isn't, why would a Stanley Cup contender trade for him?  And if he is, then why trade him?  He's proven he can handle a full season's work, even getting stronger as the season gets longer.  He's played for bad teams and worse.  What more does he need to do?  And, more importantly, why does anyone have any more confidence in Miller being able to do those things when he hasn't done so either?  As has been pointed out in our myriad discussions on HF about this, if he'd had competent backups in the past 2 seasons we would have made the playoffs at least once.  Asking a goalie to have a 75% winning percentage is a little too much to ask.

It's easy to blame the goalie when the team sucks.  It's easy to get spoiled when your team sucked but you had the best goalie who ever played the game in his prime bailing them out most nights fresh in your memory.  It's easy to look away from the uncomfortable and disheartening present and see salvation in the future.  It's easy to fall back on the 'wisdom of the scouts and GM's.'  What is hard is to appreciate what you've have currently, and what it can give you in the future.

The grass always looks greener on the other side of the fence and memories are always better than the experience itself.  Biron's legacy, if he is traded before the March 9th deadline, will be to bear the burden of the sins of the Buffalo Sabres rebuilding, the cheerful Scapegoat of the Angry Goat Heads.  We rarely like to be reminded of our sins and our mistakes and so, for that and Miller's 2 more years of Restricted FA status Biron's days as a Sabre are limited.  I'll cheer for Ryan Miller in the future as hard as I cheered for him back in October, but I'll do so knowing that the crease he occupies will have been paved with all of the pain and sweat of someone who deserved better from all of us.

Ta,