Sabre Rattling

ZOMG! People in Hockey Place Bets!

I don't expect this to be one of my more popular posts, and, possibly might lose me some respect within this circle of commentators.  I've refrained here on many occasions to get into subjects that would draw attention to my political/philosophical views, trying instead to keep the discussion focused primarily on the Sabres in specific and the sport in general.  If anyone wants to know my politics there's a slew of articles here that will elucidate them in painstaking detail. 

So, that said, I find it really sad that Rick Tocchet, et. al. are facing all sorts of charges and, most probably, jail time because of placing bets on sporting events.  Personally, I don't have a lot of respect for the law as a mechanism for dispensing justice.  Hell, that statement alone would take weeks of writing extensively just to parse the words used to convey the depth of meaning that I'm implying.  Defining the word justice alone, outside of the context of human-enforced law is worthy of multiple blog posts in and of itself.

Morality (defined as that which separates right from wrong) cannot be legislated.  Gambling is no more wrong than obeying the speed limit is right.  Both conditions are arbitrarily defined by those who have the privilege to enforce that definition.  So, the fact that this has become an issue is nothing more than noise in the service of the state trying to justify it's own existence and a way for busy-body do-gooders to force their desires and worldview onto someone else.  This is a process I despise, and yet, unfortunately it is de rigeur and becoming even more so everywhere I turn.  The cops involved in this investigation will say that they are only enforcing 'the will of the people,' all of whom they were empowered to 'protect and serve.'   It's disturbing that we no longer have 'peace officers' but 'law enforcement officers.'  There are two fundamentally different functions at play there.  The former are charged with keeping the peace via crime investigation and dispute resolution, while the latter are charged with enforcing the rules.  The former truly serve the people while the latter only serve the rule makers. 

In the same week where Britney Spears is hounded for the non-crime of not having her child in a car seat, we have another non-crime blazing across the headlines in the hockey world, namely a bunch of people getting together and betting with their own money on the outcome of sporting events they are not personally involved in.

Looking at this from an economic perspective, is placing a bet on the outcome of a football game really fundamentally different than choosing to start a business selling shoes?  Both are educated guesses about the future events.. one the relative number of points scored by a football team, the other the amount of money people will spend buying particular shoes.  All of human endeavor is a guess about future events.  Again, why is there a distinction between these types of human behavior, where there is no theft of property (communists please stay quiet, property and profit are not theft no matter how many times you say it!!!!!).

Politically, I belong to a small group of people who consider themselves anarcho-capitalists, and who believe the absolute sovereignty of the individual forms the basis for all constructive and peaceful human endeavors.  Spend some time at the Mises Institute for a primer.

The State of New Jersey is acting like the aggressive bunch of thugs and highwaymen it truly is here.  One of the axioms I live my life by is "Don't Steal (or kill).  The government hates competition."  I find a tremendous amount of irony in the fact that state run lotteries have the worst odds of winning of any game I know of and yet those are legal, while playing roulette or blackjack at a casino is venal and wrong (even though the house odds in those games are 5.26% and ~0.5% respectively, depending on the rules).  One of the bright spots about the rise of Poker as an acceptable activity is that some of the PR damage to the league might be mitigated. 

So, these people will either go to jail or be made to prostrate themselves on the mercy of the public opinion court (doing community service or some other way of 'repaying society,' even though they probably didn't cheat anybody) all for engaging what is a perfectly normal and reasonable human behavior.

So, again, could someone please explain to me why we should give a rat's ass about this? 

Ta,

p.s. I understand James Mirtle's issue with this.  There will be a certain amount of righteous indignation thrown around and false virtuousness pandered to that will be wholly disgusting and nigh inappropriate... along with being highly effective propaganda for the Nanny State.  It will suck for the game, the league, and the fans.  ESPN will have a field day... that piece of leftist shite.

p.p.s.  I'm sure that the police in question have some ulterior motives for leaking this to the public... look for some New Jersey DA to make a run towards a higher office based on this incident.  It's commonplace for DA's to rise politically on the backs of people involved in this kind of 'criminal activity.'  That fascist blowhard Guiliani did it, Eliot Spitzer is following in the sewer Rudy carved and I'm sure there's someone in Jersey wanting to emulate his heroes.  After all, if Spitzer can get Martha Stewart, why can't some other tax-funded leech get The Great One?

p.p.p.s.  If you can't tell, part of the reason I didn't want to comment on this is that it's really no good for my blood pressure.  I stopped blogging about current events and politics because it was too painful and I found my days were ruined after I'd finished a post about some horrible thing done by some F$%ktwit government stooge.  So, I really hope that this doesn't end too badly for those involved but my gut feeling is similar to Mr. Mirtle's, that this is going to be a horrible thing for everyone, including hockey fans.

 

 

Ruff and Ready for the Task Ahead

Link: Buffalo News - Lindy Ruff's gift of gab sparks team.

One of the things that solidified my decision for adopting the Buffalo Sabres as my own was that Lindy Ruff was the Head Coach.  Ruff's overall demeanor, wry candor and his ability to dish out the perfect one-liner impressed the hell out of me.  Along with that his ability to extract the most out of his roster, even those who didn't like him, made me one of his staunchest supporters during these past few seasons... the lean and forgettable years.    During those times I wondered seriously if I would continue to follow the Sabres with the same enthusiasm if he was fired, that's how much I identify him with the team.  To me he is similar to Bill Parcells, when he left the Giants and his imprimatur was no longer stamped on them, i didn't care as much as I did before.  During his tenure I became a fan of him and less a fan of the team I had grown up rooting for.   I rooted for the Pats (secretly, of course) when he went there... though there was no way I could support the Tuna while coaching the Jets or Dallas, some things are just not done. 

I never watched Lindy Ruff play hockey, or if I did when I was younger I don't remember it.  But, I remember clearly that as I was falling in love with the sport for the second time in my life that process was inextricably bound to the image of him being behind the bench of the Hardest Working Team in Hockey.  These are my biases, and I wear them proudly. 

I've long held the belief that he was this organization's greatest asset (aside, of course, from the stability brought by Tom Golisano's ownership).  And, this year, he is proving that assessment correct on a number of levels.  There are a number of coaches who are doing a phenomanal job of leading their teams to unexpected success... Tom Renney and Peter Laviolette to name a couple.  But those guys have something that Ruff doesn't have... a bonafide Superstar on their rosters... Jagr and Staal. 

Instead the Sabres have Ruff. 

The proof, for me, of great coaching lies in the special teams and the Sabres are 2nd in the league on the Power Play and 3rd on the Penalty Kill.  As John Vogl's article points out, the Sabres coaching staff is prepared and their work ethic informs the work ethic of the players.  Special Teams is not only discipline and talent, but preparation.  Knowing what the other team's tendancies are is an advantage, and it's one that can only come from great coaching.

So, that's it, my case for why Ruff deserves (at this point) the curse of the Jack Adams Trophy.  But, if I know Lindy, he'll figure out a way to avoid that one as well.

Ta,

Fretting about the Value of "5"

Link: CanucksCorner.com :: Tom Benjamin's NHL Weblog.

Tom Benjamin asks a few questions after having run some numbers about the strengths and weaknesses of the 6 NHL divisions.  He doesn't like the results, which I guess, obfuscate the meaning of accumulated points on a team for team basis.  And, of course, what starts out as a cursory look at the routine differences in quality amongst the six 5 team groupings that make up the NHL turns into a rant about how the NHL is badly run and stupidly organized.  I'll take his question that end his article one at a time (my responses in italics):

Who is the best team in the league?  Whichever one you think is the best, no other definition can possibly be calculated because everyones criteria vis a vis 'bestness' are different.
How should the teams be seeded? The eternal question that has no 'right' answer.  Any seeding system will be 'unfair' to someone, so any system is as good as any other because they are all arbitrary. 
Who should be in the playoffs? Whichever teams fulfill the requirements of the rulebook.  The fact is the schedule has a huge impact on how teams play and prepare for individual games, which affects the outcomes of those games.  Hence changing the schedule (or the division structure) changes the definition of 'playoff worthy."   It's impossible to make the case that, for example, if Atlanta finishes 8th in the East they should not make the playoffs because San Jose is a better team, even though San Jose wound up 9th in the West. 
Who can tell?  I can and anyone who can't is being purposefully obtuse.  The rules are very clearly stated.  Though Tom's analysis will certainly be of help when handicapping individual playoff series.

If every race car was timed on a different track could we determine which one was fastest?  No.  The last time I checked, hockey was not a race.... so what's the point of the analogy?

What is the point of the regular season again?

To sell tickets and advertising and allow 16 of the teams to do the same during the playoffs.  Or am I missing something?

And, finally, why is it that the professional league with the best game has to be the worst run sports league in history?  Wow!  Is your barn empty Tom?  Because that's one damn big straw man you just built! 

I think Tom's implication with the last question was an attempt to say that because the division/conference/playoff seeding system doesn't  1) necessarily pick the 'best' teams to make the playoffs and 2) normalize the difficulty to make the playoffs for each team means that the NHL is badly-run and amateurish.  I won't even go into how much he is deriving from a little more than 1/2 a season's worth of data.  To draw such conclusions from such a small data set is statistically specious.  A more valid approach would be to look at the results from the last time the system was changed up to, but not including, this year and see what the results were.  Then, those data should be compared with the NHL's stated desires for the system and a comparison made. 

I think there's a misconception between what it is that Tom Benjamin (and some of the commenters) wants the NHL to be and what the NHL is.  To be generous to Tom. I think he wants to see an NHL that has a purity to its competition.  That the games be played and the Stanley Cup awarded in such a way that is optimal in a competitive and, for lack of a better term, artistic sense.  A noble desire, certainly, and part of me agrees with him on this.  The problem with that kind of thinking is that there is no good way to know beforehand what the skill level of each team will be and therefore achieve the kind of normality (in the statistical sense of the word) that would maximize the probability of that outcome. 

Personally, I used to care about such things, and make similar arguments, when I was more trustful of rules and laws to manage/manipulate systems.  I don't any longer.  No schedule is fair in that sense.  All groupings of teams into divisions/conferences are arbitrary in some way.  Even games between common opponents have external factors that affect the  outcome.  In short, there's no way to normalize the hardship that the teams go through from October to April.  Once you come to understand that fretting about these differences becomes nothing more than a childish exercise in self-promotion. 

The NHL does not exist to satisfy my, James Mirtle's, Tom Benjamin's or anyone else's view of what a hockey league should look like.  It exists primarily (and I think this  is the thing that galls Tom more than anything else) to make money for those associated with it; owners, players and advertisers.  And, while the league doesn't exist without an audience, that's true, the feedback from the fans matters only insofar as they are not willing to pay attention to it.  For all of the complaining Tom does about the NHL, he's one of their best customers... that's the biggest irony of all.

Hockey may, at times, approach art, or, at least, have moments that transcend the motives stated above.  But, the NHL, is not hockey.  It is simply an organization that puts on games of it.  There are dozens of them around the world.  Find one that does the best job of satisfying your needs and patronize it.  Do they always make the right decisions?  Of course not.  But, obviously they're doing enough things right because we keep tuning in, posting in our blogs and spending our limited amount of time on this planet, above-ground, thinking about it. 

I don't know about you, but I have better things to do with my life than argue over the value of 5 or the redness of red.  Is San Jose better than Atlanta?  Who's 52 points (as of this writing) should be worth more?  It's a fun debate, but the existance of which is not a bad thing.  Actually, it more probably works in the NHL's favor.  After all, if not for their 'mistakes', what would we have to talk about?

Ta,

Edited on 1/30/06 to clarfiy points and clean up errors.

TBN -- Blogging the AGH to Geekdom

Link: Buffalo News - Steady diet of podcasts, blogs feeds hockey fever.

Thanks to Greg Connors at the Buffalo News for noticing Sabre Rattling and thinking enough of it to want to do a feature about it (and me, weirdly enough).  Props for the success of this blog have to go to all of the others I've read regularly (most notably Kevin et. al. over at Bfloblog). 

One of the things Greg noted to me during the interview was how open and friendly the hockey blogging community is, which I agreed with wholeheartedly.  The quickness with which this blog was accepted by the community was really appreciated and unexpected.  I did my level best to plug every one in the community I could think of, and for those who are coming here from there I would ask that you take an extra 15 minutes and pick a few from the blogroll at the right.

What also came up in discussion was the quality level of the blogs.  Greg noted to me that he'd spent time perusing football and other sports blogs and didn't see the level of insight and understanding of the game like he did here in this corner of the Blogosphere.  I couldn't make the comparison myself, I don't read about other sports being primarily a hockey fan, but I do agree with his observations about how good a job we do covering the sport.  He seemed genuinely impressed with all of the blogs he'd seen (and he'd missed a few of the really good ones) and highlighting that was part of his intentions.

So, while I would have loved to have been in the country on wednesday to have a new post available and welcome those who Greg brought here, it's great to have had this experience nonetheless. 

Pats on the back all around hockey bloggers. 

Now, if only the Sabres would stop the endless parade to the trainer's room, all would be better with the world.

Ta,

p.s. As for the title of this post... well, I am a geek and that was plainly evident from the quote choices.   Thanks Greg.  :)

We Want to Think it's not True but...

Link: TSN : nhl - Canada's Sports Leader.

Between Tsn's supposedly algorithimically-determined Power Rankings (it only took 11 straight wins to crack the top half of the league) and this obvious error on the standings page, I'm beginning to wonder if TSN has a thing against the Leafs conference member at the other end of the QEW. 

Check this out:

Ten wins in the past eleven games for what could be the hottest team in the West. Surprisingly enough, the Stars are doing it without a single point-per-game producer.

I think it is interesting to note that if you substitute the word 'Sabres' for 'Stars' and "NHL" for "West" this sentence cwould be just as accurate.  So, why the fixation on the injuries to Buffalo's supposedly key players (Briere, Miller)?

Oh and BTW, the Gretkzy-coached Desert Dogs are 4th, with 3 fewer wins, 2 more losses and are still having trouble scoring goals.

All of this wouldn't be so bad if they could actually put the standings up in the right order.  Who does their web-design?  Don Cherry?

Ta,

Note: the first link will only open under IE, Firefox doesn't display Web archives at all.  Sorry about that, I'm not enough of an HTML wiz to move a complete document to a off-site FTP server, but I wanted to capture the mistake for posterity's sake.

TBN -- Tom G. on Building a Winner

Link: Buffalo News - Despite bad vibes, Golisano says Sabres doing it right.

I've been very impressed with Tom Golisano's handling of the Sabres since he took over.  Quibbling aside it looks to me that he has a goal in mind and a plan by which to get there.  I know that some of the fans I've talked to (and I'd love Chainshot's follow-up opinion on this) have wondered if that plan is the optimal one or not.  There are no doubt glaring holes in the Sabres current lineup.  Make no mistake, this does not look like a Stanley Cup capable team right now, but, given the demographics of the market and dire circumstances of just three years ago having a plan that is profitable within those parameters is the surest way to building a long-term success on the ice.

Gleason's hyperbole doesn't help the situation at all:

With so many box-office hits in one week, who needs public-relations disasters? Of course, the negative vibes reverberating from South Park and Main came after fans were so disenchanted with Buffalo's performance in free agency that they practically longed for the good ol' days under the previous collective bargaining agreement.

Not this fan.  Some yes.  But, certainly not me.

Tom Golisano has built a helluva lot more in his life than most of his detractors, and while he may not be the most experienced hockey mind around, he does understand how to build something up from nothing.  My view is that when he took over the Sabres were nothing.  There wasn't much if anything of value other than the personel in the organization.  The price he paid only covered their current debt load, if I remember correctly.  You don't build a house from the roof trusses down.  And regardless of what Tom Benjamin and his ilk are saying about not being able to build through the draft under this CBA, or any CBA, you don't build a hockey franchise from the Star Player down either.  You still build through shrewd acquisition of talent, buying low and selling high. The draft is still an important part of that equation. [see comments for edits, which are bolded... *hangs head in shame*]

TBN - Sullivan's Useless Follow-Up

Link: Buffalo News - Sabres looking penny wise, hockey foolish.
I would expect a local newspaper to employ someone as a sports writer whose articles can rise above the worst level of internet message board writing.  But, the Buffalo News can't seem to do that.  Jerry Sullivan may really care about the Buffalo Sabres but he has a funny way of showing it.  He sounds like every busybody with a pet cause complianing to their local government to just 'DO SOMETHING! ANYTHING!"  Maybe Darcy should show Jerry he cares by sending him a get well card for the burr up his ass!

As I said yesterday who cares about the malcontents leaving because they didn't feel like they were treated properly.  Maybe it was they who had the loser mentality while Ruff, in an unbelievably bad situation, demanded that they play a brand of hockey that would give them the best chance for success and still expected them to give a full accounting of themselves on every shift, no exceptions, no special favors because your Doug Gilmour or whoever it was you used to be. Regier and Ruff have been slowly acquiring what they think is a balanced group of players with both talent and heart. 

Sayeth La Sullivan:

 

You can bet that the typical free agent is aware that Lindy Ruff's defensive-minded system has suppressed the offensive statistics of virtually every skilled forward who has played for him in Buffalo.

And, tell me Jerry just who would those skilled forwards be?  Dixon Ward?  Michael Peca? Chris Gratton?  or maybe it was the paragon of NHL ability Michael Grosek?  This is typical lazy, straw-man stuff.   The truth is people like Peca, Stu Barnes, Varada, and yes, Satan were never better than when they played for Lindy Ruff and his so-called defensive system.  Seemed to work for Bowman and LeMaire, didn't it?   I mean, how many coaches in the NHL currently would have been able to extract 17+ minutes a night from career AHL'er Rory Fitzpatrick and not have it cost them their job? 

Ruff is the teams greatest asset.  Anyone who can't see this is in desperate need of an eye exam.  Then again, this team was 10th in Goals For last year and no one had more than 30, including the Dark Lord himself. Zhitnik wasn't expendable, he just wasn't worht $3.5 milion a year for 4 years, and he was an impediment to Dmitri Kalinin's growth, which became obvious once Z was injured during the stretch run of '03-04.

TBN -- Briere, Captain Material?

Link: Buffalo News - Sabres still working to get in the game.

Well, we must be getting close to hockey season The Buffalo News has actually had some Sabres coverage.  I may faint, three articles in two days this week.  On the heels of yesterdays dirty laundry list comes this more reasonable assessment of the Sabres current situation.  I'm pleased that Tim Graham decided not to take any pot shots at the organization lack of current moves and place them in the longer-term context.

The quotes he got from Daniel Briere though sum up the kind of attitude that needs to be universal in the locker room for this team to succeed:

"Some teams will have to unload, and that's where we can take advantage," said Briere, acquired for Chris Gratton at the 2002 trade deadline, one of Regier's all-time best moves. "If we as players can put ourselves in good position through the first two or three months and don't fall off the charts right off the bat, we could become a very dangerous team if we can pick up an extra guy or two.

"It's up to the players we have right now to keep us in a playoff spot. When management sees how we have done they'll make the appropriate moves."

He's placing the burden of success on his shoulders.  This team has been lacking in leadership since Peca left and it seems that now we're beginning to see who is and who will be the leadership going forward.  Zhitnik and Satan either didn't want to or were incapable of doing it.   

If Briere backs these words up with his play on the ice and gets the rest to do the same then I'll be too happy watching them win to remember what did or did not happen during the off-season.

Ta,

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall... Part 1

I love being new at something.  This is now the third time I've started this message and I'm hoping like heck it is my last.  Anyway, back to hockey:

With the UFA pandemonium finally subsiding, we can start to take a look at the Sabres competition, namely their rivals in the Northeast Division.

Ottawa:

Departures-

Radek Bonk C/LW (Montreal via trade to LA)

Todd White C (Minnesota via trade)

Jacques Martin Coach (Fired, now coaching Florida)

Patrick Lalime G (St. Louis via trade)

Martin Prusek G (UFA signed with Columbus)

Curtis Leschyshyn D (UFA signed with Colorado)

Arrivals -

Dominik Hasek G (UFA from Detroit)

Ray Emery G (AHL promotion)

Steve Martins C (UFA from St. Louis)

Tomas Malec D (UFA from Anaheim)

In Limbo -

Peter Bondra and Shaun Van Allen (UFA's)

Overall, this is still the team to beat in the division.  They brought in an aging Hasek, who we know wont be all-world but who does have swagger and the ability to win games single-handedly.  Emery should be fine as his backup.  The defense is absolutely loaded:  Chara, Redden, Phillips, Volchenkov, de Vries, Porthier.  Their scoring is stacked with the likes of Hossa, Havlat, Spezza, and Alfredsson plus they have some excellent support players in Fisher, Varada, Schaefer, Vermette, and Neil.  Their questions are few, though Hasek's health is primary.  LW and second line centre scoring are also possible concerns on the ice, and cap issues may be a distraction off the ice.  But this is still one of the best teams in all of hockey IMHO.  And they faceoff with Buffalo 8 times this year....

Carnival of the NHL #5: Could it be Satan? Hmmm?

Thanks to PJ for hosting the latest Carnival of the NHL, in which he both compliments my choice of Typepad template but also wonders what I think about the loss of Satan from the Sabres lineup.  Well, aside from losing the distinction of having the guy with the coolest name the Sabres lose a player of unquestioned skill and abilities.  Honestly, though, I think the loss of Zhitnik to a team already thin on defense is of greater concern and as much as I like the acquistion of Teppo Numminen he cannot, at this stage of his career, replace all that Z brought to the team.  Of course, if Kalinin continues his upward progression he won't need to.

The loss of those two guys may not, though, be as big as it may seem on the surface.  By the end of the 2003-04 season neither really wanted to be in Buffalo anymore.  This was more true of Satan than Z, and his lack of production post-deadline had me believing he thought he was, as his namesake, living in hell.  After Z's season-ending injury the team in general and Dmitri Kalinin in specific responded positively to the pressure.  Had it not been for an unbelievable run by the Isles, the Sabres had a real chance to make the playoffs without their, presumably, two best players.  The best part of those final weeks of the season was watching a group of guys wearing the Angry Goat Head become a team for the first time since Kasparitis beat Hasek glove-side high.

Darth Regier has stated that Derek Roy and Thomas Vanek will replace The Dark Lord's production.  Neither myself or my co-author and lifelong Sabres fan, Chainshot, are convinced this will happen.  Fortunately, I think that the rest of the team will respond to the extra ice-time and the lack of distractions created by a sulking superstar and his difficult relationship with Lindy Ruff.  If Vanek can give us 20-25 goals and one of our numerous 2nd-liners {*cough* Afinogenov *cough* }can have a career year, then this team will not miss Satan in the least. 

The problem comes when one considers just how they're going to keep the pucks out of the net and while all three goalies have bright futures ahead of them, half of the guys in front of them do not.  While I don't mind winning games 6-5, I don't think our forwards are capable of 6 GF/game.
And for that reason, we need to see a marked improvement in the game of Henrik Tallinder.  If he comes to camp ready to be the second coming of Mattias Ohlund then this team, right now, can make the playoffs. Because even though there's been all sorts of movement around the Eastern Conference, I don't really think many teams outside of Pennsylvania and Georgia have improved themselves.

  If not, well, there's always Phil Kessel.

Ta,