Around the NHL Commentary

Link: Hockey Rants.

First off there is Jes Golbez's first pass at a statistical analysis of correlating a variety of common shibboleths and winning.  It's a good read, please check it out.  Jes also asks for some suggestions (which I made in the comments section), but I'd like to say some other things as well here.  His analysis suggests something that Tom Benjamin brought up a while ago about Puck Possession, and how hockey ain't a game of it, but rather Puck Position, which is something I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Benjamin about.

Of the 8 statistics compared by Mr. Golbez, Face-Off % was only bested by Hits as being the least correlated with winning.  Most Face-offs have very little overall impact on the outcome of the game.  During any one game there may only be a handful out of the multiple dozens of face-offs which are tactically important or invested with great weight and urgency.    So, to me, it's no surprise whatsoever that this combined with Tom B.'s excellent analysis of where the puck is being far more important than who has it yields up the result of there being no meaningful correlation between winning face-offs and winning games.   

I suggested to Jes, though, that looking at, not only PP%, but that in conjunction with PP differential might have yield some interesting results. 

More Adams award Discussion -- Peter L and the Canes

Next up is a thread on HF that made some of the cells in my brain attempt to make sparks.  Not surprisingly the comment by Chainshot in response to someone suggesting that Laviolette has not done as good a job as Ruff because he inherited the Canes was the catalyst:

The Canes do NOT play Paul Maurice's system any longer however. Laviolette has them playing an up-tempo speed and puck-control game that is about as far from PM's trap-ee-ness as can be. Ruff's adapted (though the defense mindset is still there and more evident as the games progress), but Laviolette has as well. He, Ruff and Renney have all done very well with what the pundits claimed were also ran lineups. The teams they "inherited" were predicted to be cellar dwellers en masse, so whatever they have done has been noteworthy. That Laviolette has also foster the offensive explosion from Staal and found a way to re-kindle Brindy's "A" game is nearly worth the award just as coaching accomplishments.

It's the last bit that got me thinking.  I stated the other day that Lavalamp's job is made easier because he has a bona-fide superstar on his roster while Ruff does not (although with the way Miller's been playing that statement is now highly specious).  I still stand by that.  I don't think Peter L. can take all the credit for that happening, it has to come from the player ultimately.  But, that said, the point isn't about Staal directly but the cascade effect he has all through the Canes roster.  Him emerging as the dominant #1 centerman makes all the other centers on the roster better.

Brind'amour's situation has multiple angles.  First, it's obvious that Rod used the lockout as an opportunity to truly get healthy for the first time in years.  He's had a tough few seasons prior to this one physically, and he's one of those guys for whom the lockout was a blessing (in a way).  Added to that is the Staal effect which now means Rod can go back to playing his normal role of #2/#3 pivot as opposed to being The Man, which wasn't working.  His workload got even easier this year with the Staal effect cascading through him to Matt Cullen.   Now, granted Laviolette has a tremendous amount to do with all of this, but taking advantage of having a legit superstar and that kind of depth down the middle does make for some less restless sleep at night, or at a minimum allow him to concentrate on other issues. 

With the addition of Doug Weight, the only issue now is ice-time.  Carolina might have the best crop of centers in the NHL right now. 

By contrast Ruff's only real #1 centerman has been injured since November, and yet, the Sabres keep winning.  As Connolly grew into the role that Briere played, Ruff and the team adjusted.  With the injury to Connolly and Hecht moving over to take his place (and doing a damn fine job I might add)  the Sabres almost look like they're getting stronger.   Both teams are beginning to peak right now and the real test for us comes Saturday evening.  If we can skate with the Sens for 60 minutes that would be an improvement over the previous 3 games, even if they lose. 

In the end it will be an interesting race to see who gets the Curse of the Jack Adams.  I won't complain too much as long as it is one of Ruff, Renney or the Lavalamp.

Delay of Game Too Harsh?

Joe Tasca over at Offwingopinion has some criticism of the automagic Delay of Game penalty for defensemen shooting the puck into the stands.  I got involved in that discussion earlier and bought up the non-call on The Kaspar-fish that led almost directly to Mario's miracle goal back in 2002. 

One responder suggested that a 2 minute penalty is too harsh and that making the punishment equal to icing the puck (no changes for the defensive team), which, I could probably live with but am still not a fan of completely.  If anything the Goalies should be the ones who force a defensive-zone draw without a personnel change as they really aren't required to be good puckhandlers to be good goalies. 

On the other hand, defensemen do, which brings me to my final point on this (from my final comment in the thread):

[Defensemen} they know how to use their sticks to play the puck, it's essential to their game... therefore, in my mind, the number of penalties given out this year for this infraction just shows me how big the discrepancy was between intentions and penalties called.

My Tae Kwon Do instructor used to say, "You do only what you train. If you train half the technique then that's what you'll throw." Well, if defensemen are putting pucks in stands at situationally-convienient times... well, they must have trained themselves to do it.

The more I think about this the more I think that there are a helluva lot fewer accidents than we might be willing to admit there are.  I understand and don't like it when this rule puts a team down 2 men either, but part of me thinks that this, like hooking and obstruction are just learned habits that need to be unlearned.  I say give it at least another year before changing the rule.  If anything change the rule for the goalies because some of those guys are just god-awful puck-handlers.  But, I'm sorry, I've seen defensemen who can rifle a one-timer from the blue-line through a 2 inch gap between the shoulder pads and the cross-bar who then turn around and flip the puck out of play 'accidently.' 

Somehow, I'm just not buying that.... not for any price.

Ta,

Comments

[David Lee]

Excellent post, and I have to concur that it is probably easier on Peter Laviolette than on Lindy Ruff.

However, what you've failed to acknowledge is that Lavi has done some things with this team that have nothing to do with the luxury of having a superstar in a breakout season. Last season, the Canes were dead last in power play scoring. This season, they are near the top of the league. Surely, this also has to do with some of the excellent free agent acquisitions. But here's where it has to do with coaching... They're setting up better, they're making better passes, they're being more patient.

And here's the big one. They're doing a MUCH better job of drawing penalties instead of taking them. Lavi did a spectacular job of getting the boys to adapt to the new rules. In the first few weeks of the season, while the refs were calling games tightly, other teams were struggling. Carolina was very well disciplined, and that was one of the reasons that they were able to get off to such a terrific start. That was even clear during the pre-season, when they were taking very few penalties.
Part of how he got them to adjust is that he threatened the boys with "herbies" if they play a game in which they take more than 4 penalties.

I don't wish to take anything away from Ruff, and I certainly can't analyze the Sabres as clearly as you've done with the Canes, but I think you should give Lavi a little more love.

[Tom L]

d-l,

Thanks for chiming in. I was hoping you would do so as I really haven't had the chance to watch the Canes as much as I would like.

This debate is really coming down to very fine points, methinks. Both coaches have prepared for this season extremely well and either one is surely worthy of the award.

Thanks for the insight into the power play efficiency and that is a huge feather in The Lavalamp's favor. Both the Sabres and the Canes were disciplined early in the season and that cretainly helped both teams.

There's no doubt that the turn-around of the Carolina franchise started with Mad Mike firing Peter L. and his subsequent hiring and, I, for one, am really glad to see it.

Ta,

[Chris]

Don't worry about Tom - he'll get 3 more times to see the your Canes play our Sabres over the next three months.

[Tom L]

And, I'll be getting Center Ice installed at my 2nd residence (yes, I'm probably the only person to pay for CI twice this year) on wednesday, so I'll actaully be able to watch the games as opposed to just listen to RJ on Internet Radio.

And, most definitely, the Canes are on my short list of teams to watch.

Ta,

[The Wife]

Hooray! Now I don't have to miss any more games when I visit.