Sabre Rattling

Ruff and Ready for the Task Ahead

Link: Buffalo News - Lindy Ruff's gift of gab sparks team.

One of the things that solidified my decision for adopting the Buffalo Sabres as my own was that Lindy Ruff was the Head Coach.  Ruff's overall demeanor, wry candor and his ability to dish out the perfect one-liner impressed the hell out of me.  Along with that his ability to extract the most out of his roster, even those who didn't like him, made me one of his staunchest supporters during these past few seasons... the lean and forgettable years.    During those times I wondered seriously if I would continue to follow the Sabres with the same enthusiasm if he was fired, that's how much I identify him with the team.  To me he is similar to Bill Parcells, when he left the Giants and his imprimatur was no longer stamped on them, i didn't care as much as I did before.  During his tenure I became a fan of him and less a fan of the team I had grown up rooting for.   I rooted for the Pats (secretly, of course) when he went there... though there was no way I could support the Tuna while coaching the Jets or Dallas, some things are just not done. 

I never watched Lindy Ruff play hockey, or if I did when I was younger I don't remember it.  But, I remember clearly that as I was falling in love with the sport for the second time in my life that process was inextricably bound to the image of him being behind the bench of the Hardest Working Team in Hockey.  These are my biases, and I wear them proudly. 

I've long held the belief that he was this organization's greatest asset (aside, of course, from the stability brought by Tom Golisano's ownership).  And, this year, he is proving that assessment correct on a number of levels.  There are a number of coaches who are doing a phenomanal job of leading their teams to unexpected success... Tom Renney and Peter Laviolette to name a couple.  But those guys have something that Ruff doesn't have... a bonafide Superstar on their rosters... Jagr and Staal. 

Instead the Sabres have Ruff. 

The proof, for me, of great coaching lies in the special teams and the Sabres are 2nd in the league on the Power Play and 3rd on the Penalty Kill.  As John Vogl's article points out, the Sabres coaching staff is prepared and their work ethic informs the work ethic of the players.  Special Teams is not only discipline and talent, but preparation.  Knowing what the other team's tendancies are is an advantage, and it's one that can only come from great coaching.

So, that's it, my case for why Ruff deserves (at this point) the curse of the Jack Adams Trophy.  But, if I know Lindy, he'll figure out a way to avoid that one as well.

Ta,

Fretting about the Value of "5"

Link: CanucksCorner.com :: Tom Benjamin's NHL Weblog.

Tom Benjamin asks a few questions after having run some numbers about the strengths and weaknesses of the 6 NHL divisions.  He doesn't like the results, which I guess, obfuscate the meaning of accumulated points on a team for team basis.  And, of course, what starts out as a cursory look at the routine differences in quality amongst the six 5 team groupings that make up the NHL turns into a rant about how the NHL is badly run and stupidly organized.  I'll take his question that end his article one at a time (my responses in italics):

Who is the best team in the league?  Whichever one you think is the best, no other definition can possibly be calculated because everyones criteria vis a vis 'bestness' are different.
How should the teams be seeded? The eternal question that has no 'right' answer.  Any seeding system will be 'unfair' to someone, so any system is as good as any other because they are all arbitrary. 
Who should be in the playoffs? Whichever teams fulfill the requirements of the rulebook.  The fact is the schedule has a huge impact on how teams play and prepare for individual games, which affects the outcomes of those games.  Hence changing the schedule (or the division structure) changes the definition of 'playoff worthy."   It's impossible to make the case that, for example, if Atlanta finishes 8th in the East they should not make the playoffs because San Jose is a better team, even though San Jose wound up 9th in the West. 
Who can tell?  I can and anyone who can't is being purposefully obtuse.  The rules are very clearly stated.  Though Tom's analysis will certainly be of help when handicapping individual playoff series.

If every race car was timed on a different track could we determine which one was fastest?  No.  The last time I checked, hockey was not a race.... so what's the point of the analogy?

What is the point of the regular season again?

To sell tickets and advertising and allow 16 of the teams to do the same during the playoffs.  Or am I missing something?

And, finally, why is it that the professional league with the best game has to be the worst run sports league in history?  Wow!  Is your barn empty Tom?  Because that's one damn big straw man you just built! 

I think Tom's implication with the last question was an attempt to say that because the division/conference/playoff seeding system doesn't  1) necessarily pick the 'best' teams to make the playoffs and 2) normalize the difficulty to make the playoffs for each team means that the NHL is badly-run and amateurish.  I won't even go into how much he is deriving from a little more than 1/2 a season's worth of data.  To draw such conclusions from such a small data set is statistically specious.  A more valid approach would be to look at the results from the last time the system was changed up to, but not including, this year and see what the results were.  Then, those data should be compared with the NHL's stated desires for the system and a comparison made. 

I think there's a misconception between what it is that Tom Benjamin (and some of the commenters) wants the NHL to be and what the NHL is.  To be generous to Tom. I think he wants to see an NHL that has a purity to its competition.  That the games be played and the Stanley Cup awarded in such a way that is optimal in a competitive and, for lack of a better term, artistic sense.  A noble desire, certainly, and part of me agrees with him on this.  The problem with that kind of thinking is that there is no good way to know beforehand what the skill level of each team will be and therefore achieve the kind of normality (in the statistical sense of the word) that would maximize the probability of that outcome. 

Personally, I used to care about such things, and make similar arguments, when I was more trustful of rules and laws to manage/manipulate systems.  I don't any longer.  No schedule is fair in that sense.  All groupings of teams into divisions/conferences are arbitrary in some way.  Even games between common opponents have external factors that affect the  outcome.  In short, there's no way to normalize the hardship that the teams go through from October to April.  Once you come to understand that fretting about these differences becomes nothing more than a childish exercise in self-promotion. 

The NHL does not exist to satisfy my, James Mirtle's, Tom Benjamin's or anyone else's view of what a hockey league should look like.  It exists primarily (and I think this  is the thing that galls Tom more than anything else) to make money for those associated with it; owners, players and advertisers.  And, while the league doesn't exist without an audience, that's true, the feedback from the fans matters only insofar as they are not willing to pay attention to it.  For all of the complaining Tom does about the NHL, he's one of their best customers... that's the biggest irony of all.

Hockey may, at times, approach art, or, at least, have moments that transcend the motives stated above.  But, the NHL, is not hockey.  It is simply an organization that puts on games of it.  There are dozens of them around the world.  Find one that does the best job of satisfying your needs and patronize it.  Do they always make the right decisions?  Of course not.  But, obviously they're doing enough things right because we keep tuning in, posting in our blogs and spending our limited amount of time on this planet, above-ground, thinking about it. 

I don't know about you, but I have better things to do with my life than argue over the value of 5 or the redness of red.  Is San Jose better than Atlanta?  Who's 52 points (as of this writing) should be worth more?  It's a fun debate, but the existance of which is not a bad thing.  Actually, it more probably works in the NHL's favor.  After all, if not for their 'mistakes', what would we have to talk about?

Ta,

Edited on 1/30/06 to clarfiy points and clean up errors.

Let's Call This the "Sabres Rule"...

Link: TSN.ca - Columnists - Canada's Sports Leader.

There's a rumor floating around that with next season's rule changes will come this one, which will be added to the section fo the Rulebook on Goal Scoring:

...the first illegal goal scored by the other team [is] to be disallowed.

Along with that the NHL is also considering actually using Nextel's Walkie-Talkie service as opposed to just taking their advertising dollars.  That way they'll have instant communications with all of their video goal judges.  So, that if the guy in Calgary decided to do what he did again Colin Campbell could deal with the situation properly next time...

<distinctive Nextel Beep you can't ignore>
Campbell:  "You're fired."
<distinctive Nextel Beep you can't ignore>

I know Dave Hodge was trying to be funny here, but honestly, it's no laughing matter. 

Ta,

Quotes from the Gutless Fish Market

Link: Buffalo News - Connolly injury taints win for Sabres.

Link: Buffalo Sabres.

Last night's game vs. the Rags was a fine response to the non-showing the boys put up in Calgary.  But, overshadowing a solid outplaying of every Ranger not named Lundqvist was the hit that the Kaspar-fish sidelined Tim Connolly with.  I didn't see the game or the hit myself so I can't really pass judgment on it.  I will say though, that there are plenty of 'clean' or 'legal' hits that are obvious intents to injure.  Scott Stevens made a career of dishing those out.  Nothing will happen to Kaspar, nothing ever does.. but I'll say this the boys sure had their Quote on after the game:

"... and I was upset at the way he responded.  When challenged, he flopped around the ice like a half-dead fish."  -- Lindy Ruff

"When I see a 240-lb guy diving around like a Squirt after taking one of our guy's knees out... "  -- Chris Drury

"For every four good hits he dishes out, he gives three of those cheap shots.  It was pretty obvious that he was going for the knees and not a hip-check."  J.P. Dumont

Personally, I've never liked anything about Kasparaitis.  Not his hitting, offense, defense or attitude.  He's not one of those guys that you hate when he plays for the opposition but love when he's on your team... guys like him are just worthless.  Add him to the list with Peca, Tucker, Hatcher, Marchment and Brashear.  I've got no patience for guys that target knees or heads.  Period.

The above quotes are good but Mike Grier sums it up in a word... "gutless." 

"He's a heartless, gutless player," Grier said. "He has no respect for anyone else in the league. He cheap-shots guys and then won't stand up for himself. He tells me he wants to fight and then skates away and takes a dive when I barely even touch him.

"Probably the dirtiest player in the league. No one likes him. We got a game against these guys again (March 27), we'll see what happens. It's disgusting what he did to Timmy. He hurts guys with no shame. It doesn't faze him one bit. He could have hit him just as easily with his shoulder as he did with his hip."

Kaspar saw an opportunity to weaken an opponent fighting for the same playoff spot and he took it.  We all know he did, that's been his game for 10+ years in this league.  It's because of him that I love the new rule about defensemen getting a delay of game for shooting the puck over the glass.  Mario's miracle goal would have never happened had he not flung the puck into the stands to stop the clock before that.  It was an obvious delay of game tactic and should have been penalized.  The years of knocking the net off, icing, and putting the puck out of play instead of playing defense are over.  Maybe that's why he still feels the need to target the knees of the opposition's best players.  Yes, there, I said it.  Connolly had become the best player for us, night in, night out and he's gone until after the break because some sociopath enjoys hurting people.

First the non-goal in Calgary and now this.  I said the other day they would have to dig down deep to see what they were made of... well, I guess it's begun.

Ta,

Why Drury Wears the C

Link: Buffalo News - Drury says Sabres fail to sacrifice.

I knew at some point this season that this was going to happen.  A young and relatively inexperienced team was going to rest on their laurels a bit and hope to get by on talent and luck as opposed to hard work.   Lindy Ruff said last week that we weren't going to sneak up on anyone anymore, so the effort was going to have to go up a notch higher. 

Now, co-Captain Chris Drury has done the same thing.  Great article by Tim Graham on the unacceptable play in saturday's game against Calgary, a game I only listened to on I-net radio because of the high probability of our rolling over in the face of the physical Flames playing at home on a Saturday night.  Substitute the word Ottawa for Calgary and you'll understand where my expectations for this game were, and I'll be damned if I'm going to sit in a pub eating bad food to witness it visually. 

Rick and Jim's call told me all I needed to know.

This is part of the normal evolution of young teams from doormats to winners.  First, they have to believe their own press clippings (see the miserable stretch in November for that), then they have to learn to win when they are now perceived as a winner (that's where they are right now).  Lastly, they have to defeat their nemesis in a meaningful game... Can someone say Ottawa 10 times fast?

Then and only then will they have proved to themselves that they are capable and willing to do what it takes to win it all, be the very best, if only for a short time.  Right now is a good time for guys like Dumont and Pyatt to return to the lineup.  They have more experience (at losing mind you, but experience nonetheless) at playing out a stretch run.  They've been a part of a team trying to meet the challenge of winning a lot of games in a short time.  That's the advantage they bring to the table over guys like Paille and Vanek. 

In my mind it has to start this week, the sooner the better.  They're playing a team in a similar situation to theirs in the New York Rangers.  Putting the clamp down on them tonight is a great first step in rising to the next plateau.  It'll be over the next 2+ months where we find out just what these kids are made of.  Honestly, I'm both excited to have them be in this position and scared they're going to fail.  I'm sure Chris Drury and Lindy Ruff are thinking similar things.

Ta,

Bounce Back or Blow Up, How Good Teams Respond...

Link: TSN : nhl - Canada's Sports Leader

The sad and funny thing about this week's TSN Power Rankings is not that we didn't drop out of the Top 10 for only beating the Oilers by 2 it was this question about the L.A. Kings that I found fascinating:

The Saturday night debacle in Buffalo has to be disconcerting. How many good teams can get blown out like that and continue on like nothing out of the ordinary occcurred?

Answer?  Buffalo

Blown out 5-0 by Ottawa, bounce back to win 4 of their next 5.
Blown out again by Ottawa 10-4, lose two 1-goal games to Montreal while outplaying them.
Blown out a 3rd time by Ottawa, 6-1, go 7-1 in their next 8.
Smoked by the Sharks 5-0,  rattle off 7 wins in a row and 10 of their next 12.

Actually, this kind of response is the hallmark of a good team, not an indicator of a bad one.  Obviously neither LA or the Sabres let one bad night affect them beyond that night.  Well coached, disciplined, and have the ability to re-focus after a poor performance... sounds like a winning combination to me.

Ta,

 

Replacements, Reinforcements or Regulars?

Link: Buffalo News - Dumont hopes to return Tuesday in New York.

That's the question I have to ask when considering the imminent return of both J.P. Dumont and Taylor Pyatt from long-term injures.  It's been so long and this team has played so well that guys like Jason Pominville, Derek Roy and Danny Paille feel like the regulars while Dumont and Pyatt are the outsiders. 

In case you're wondering, I won't feel that way when Danny Briere returns.  With Goose returning from his head bump and Scud grounded because of his adding Pyatt back into the mix is an easy substitution. 

Dumont, on the other hand, is more of a problem (aside from my ambivalence towards him).  When healthy and motivated he brings a mix of skills to the top lines that no one else on this roster does: sand, hands and a nose for the net.  Pominville has taken his role and mutated it.  In 24 games JPom has 9 goals and 6 assists and, by a wide margin, the best Shooting % on the team.  He's a sniper like Big Al Kotalik, with a heavy shot that really helps drive the power play when he's manning the point.  He too has a good nose for the net, skulking around looking for garbage.  But he doesn't bring the edge that Dumont does.  But, all in all, he's become a very valuable asset to this hockey club.

The obvious thing to do is send Danny Paille back to Rochester allowing him to build on this experience for next season.  That's the most likely course of action when both Pyatt and Dumont are inserted into the lineup.  Of course, Regier could (perish the though) trade a goalie, or waive Andrew Peters to free up a roster spot, but that doesn't seem likely right now, regardless of the rumors in western Canada.  But, when the time comes for Scud or Briere to play one has to think that Pominville is the odd-man out. 

... and that would be a shame.

Before the season began this team was deep at Center, RW and Goalie and short on Defensemen and LW'ers.  Now, the logjam is even worse because unknown/questionable quantities like JPom, Connolly, Kotalik and Afinogenov have proved invaluable to this team's success.  Ugh. The logjam is now a full-fledged beaver dam.

Ruff and Regier are very conservative vis a vis asset management.  Ruff is looking forward to the playoffs where he can see the parade to the trainer's room continuing unabated and wants the insurance of having extra bodies to plug holes.  Regier won't make a move without someone overpaying in return.   I know they both are thinking about how best to navigate the playoffs in such a way as to give us the best chance possible to win it all.  Make no mistake, Lindy Ruff is thinking Stanley Cup and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't understand the situation.

My gut feeling is that no one will be moved (except maybe a goalie + a prospect like Janik or Novotny) and we'll try and manage around the roster limit with creative use of IR until the roster limit is lifted, almost hoping for a series of small injuries that will allow everyone to rotate into the lineup and stay sharp for the stretch run.

If Biron is traded (perish the thought at this point, dammit, Marty is too important in that room) it will be to a Western Conference team.  No way does Regier give anyone in the East a chance to burn him that way.  We all know the logical partners, the question is how much are those teams willing to pay from their rosters to acquire Smilin' Marty's services.  Honestly, I don't think either Vancouver or Edmonton have the depth to give up anyone of significance to tempt Darth Shrewdness.

If Mair is done for the season (NOOOO!!!) then things are a little easier in terms of roster manipulation, but not in terms of the playoffs.  The 4th line that started the season, Pyatt/Gaustad/Mair could possibly be the difference maker in a series with Toronto or Philly.  Size, speed, sand, the ability to check players making an order of magnitude more money than them and the odd goal... no one else on this roster is capable of all those things. 

*sigh*

Ta,

TBN -- Blogging the AGH to Geekdom

Link: Buffalo News - Steady diet of podcasts, blogs feeds hockey fever.

Thanks to Greg Connors at the Buffalo News for noticing Sabre Rattling and thinking enough of it to want to do a feature about it (and me, weirdly enough).  Props for the success of this blog have to go to all of the others I've read regularly (most notably Kevin et. al. over at Bfloblog). 

One of the things Greg noted to me during the interview was how open and friendly the hockey blogging community is, which I agreed with wholeheartedly.  The quickness with which this blog was accepted by the community was really appreciated and unexpected.  I did my level best to plug every one in the community I could think of, and for those who are coming here from there I would ask that you take an extra 15 minutes and pick a few from the blogroll at the right.

What also came up in discussion was the quality level of the blogs.  Greg noted to me that he'd spent time perusing football and other sports blogs and didn't see the level of insight and understanding of the game like he did here in this corner of the Blogosphere.  I couldn't make the comparison myself, I don't read about other sports being primarily a hockey fan, but I do agree with his observations about how good a job we do covering the sport.  He seemed genuinely impressed with all of the blogs he'd seen (and he'd missed a few of the really good ones) and highlighting that was part of his intentions.

So, while I would have loved to have been in the country on wednesday to have a new post available and welcome those who Greg brought here, it's great to have had this experience nonetheless. 

Pats on the back all around hockey bloggers. 

Now, if only the Sabres would stop the endless parade to the trainer's room, all would be better with the world.

Ta,

p.s. As for the title of this post... well, I am a geek and that was plainly evident from the quote choices.   Thanks Greg.  :)

Sabre Rattling: On Vacation

This entry is to let my regular readers (all 3 of you) that I am leaving my apt this morning to board a plane to Houston.  After that lands I board a boat for 5.5 days of rest and drunken relaxation aboard The Rock Boat.

  I will be returning late on Thursday the 19th and will be sans internet access (unless Carnival has dropped their per hour usage rates) until then.

That said and in reference to last night's game against Phoenix, 1 goal on the Power Play is not the mark of a First Tier NHL Team.  It sounded like Boucher stood on his head at times last night, but so did Biron.  Worse than that, the Power Play couldn't bail them out during OT.  This is the second (or is it third) time this season where the Sabres had extended stretches of 5 on 3 in OT and couldn't score.  To give up a point at home like that is going to come back and bite them. 

Connolly's trying too hard.  On multiple occasions last night Jim Lorentz commented that he made the wrong play with the puck, i.e. over stick-handling.  He can't revert back to the old Timmah!  We need the one who showed up for the first 40 games of the season now more than ever.

The good news from last night is that Biron was very sharp, especially in the first half of the third period where it seemed the Dogs were all over the Sabres, at one point outshooting them 11-4, man y of them quality shots, i.e. deflections, screens etc.  Quality goaltending got us a point last night.  Good thing we have two.

Ta,

HFBoards: Sabres not Sharp at Even Strength

Link: HFBoards - An Ugly Stat for Buffalo....

Buffalo's even strength goal scoring has been...well, ugly. Over 42 games, Buffalo is 25th in the league in ratio of goals for/goals against 5/5. Buffalo has a resounding .86. Meaning, they are being outscored on 5/5. Badly. As a team, Buffalo is a -10, meaning opponents have scored 10 more goals against us over 42 games 5 on 5. Thats 22nd in the league. All of this points to a team that is being carried by their special teams and goaltending. I can't remember a game where Buffalo scored 3 non special teams goals. I just can't. {Posted by MDoak on 1/9/06 -- thanks Matt.}

This is a thread that I wanted to blog about earlier in the week (when it was active) but didn't get around to.   With the Buffalo News picking this stat up I felt it only fair to give Mdoak some credit for digging this up.  This is a disquieting stat, and it's something that I began to get really worried about over the week between Christmas and New Years' when I had the chance to catch a couple of games on Center Ice (Yay... the RJ and Jim Lawrence Show!) and noticed their lack of punch at even strength.

To my mind it's really no shock that the team is suffering 5 on 5 with many of their best/experienced players sidelined with injuries.  With experience comes the ability to adapt to a changing situation.  That TBN article ends with this quote from Lindy Ruff:

"We know teams are going to adjust," Ruff said. "Some teams are going to play a real tough defensive game where maybe the first 10, 15 minutes of the game teams aren't even going to try to score and just not turn over the puck or give us chances.

"Teams are looking for ways to disrupt our speed and disrupt the things we've got going good. We have to be even better."

It's easier for guys like J.P. Dumont and Danny Briere to make these adjustments, they have the benefit of experiencing it first-hand at this level.  Guys like Pominville, Vanek (though he's the only Sabre to score 5 on 5 in 2 games), Roy, and Paille still have to go through the learning process.  It doesn't help that some old habits are starting to creep back in the games of guys like Tim Connolly and Ales Kotalik either.

With the return of both Chris Drury and Toni Lydman to the lineup for tomorrow's tilt against Gretz's Desert Dogs (Cujo!) I would hope that we score a couple of times 5 on 5.  At this point I'd almost wish for the PP to go 0 for 10 in a game to reinforce the need to work harder than the other guy is the key to having any kind of success in this league.

Ta,