Yeah, I know, it's so obvious as to be cliche, but this kind of thing is fun.... dammit! There's nothing like putting your opinions out there only to look back in horror/shame at the drivel a former version of yourself spewed forth in a delusional state of adequacy. Then again, sometimes you were right and you get to tell everyone that you were (I'm still betting my predictions for $4/gallon gasoline by the end of the year are correct, unfortunately).
So, for this year I've asked my two overworked co-authors to put forth a simple list of predictions about the Buffalo Sabres for the upcoming and inaugural season of the New NHL. Here are mine:
1) Record / Standing in the East: 40-30-12 for 92 points and 7th in the East. My gut feeling is that this team will come out of the gate with a purpose but struggle through the middle of the year a bit. I'm unconvinced that Ryan Miller will be able to handle the whole grind of the season and Ruff will mismanage him a bit.
2) Scoring Leader: Daniel Briere. This is pretty much a no-brainer. The only real question in my mind is can Thomas Vanek handle the grind? He should start strong as the goalies won't have much of a book on him yet, but he should hit the wall around the same time I expect Miller to. That's honestly the only reason why I'm not picking him over Briere. The kid's that good. But, he's enough of a competitor to put on a good push for that playoff spot.
3) Team MVP: Dmitri Kalinin. While he's hurt to start the season, Tri is going to see ice-time in every situation and be given the opportunity to become a dominant force in the NHL. My read on him is that he's ready to take this role on.
4) Signifigant Changes: A. Biron will be moved within 2 weeks of opening night. B. Regier will cherry pick a top-tier defenseman from a cap-strapped team near the deadline dealing either a revitalized Tim Connolly or Derek Roy in the process.
5) The Dreaded Catch-All Other Predictions Slot: A) Paul Gaustad will make everyone forget about Michael Peca. B) The Sabres will win the season series with the Flyers. C) Maxim Afinogenov will continue to remind me of Sergei Berezin.
That's my set for this year. I'll revisit this post from time to time this season and comment (hopefully about my nigh-precognative brilliance) as appropriate.
Ta,
92 points doesn't sound like enough for 7th, now that there are no ties. It sounds more like 10th, maybe 9th.
Posted by: Matt | Tuesday, 04 October 2005 at 08:42 AM
Matt,
Interesting observation, but one I'm not sure is all that accurate.
Having run the numbers on last season in the NHL there were 340 ties recorded, which means there will be 170 more points (2 teams per tie = 1 more win in the standings) awarded this year over last if the same number of games reach overtime and are settled by shootout.
So, spread out over 30 teams this means that there will be a gross inflation of around 5.7 points per team in the standings over last year.
It took 91 points to make the playoffs last season in the east... or more accurately, it took 86 points, b/c the Sabres ended with 85 points in 9th place. 86 + 5.7 = 91.7 points.
So, I'm off by a little bit, using that metric.
Frankly, I think there will be fewer ties this year than last as goalscoring should be up and that should push more games to finish in 60 minutes.
With that in mind, if you look at the difference between the AHL standings from 2003-04 (w/ shootout) and 2002-03 (w/o shootout) there's a big difference in the number of OT games. 357 vs. 239, a full 33% reduction in the number of games that go to OT.
Taking that 5.66 pt. inflation and factoring in this reduction in OT games played reduces the change to just 3.77 pts (5.66 x 0.666).
Now, 91pts doesn't seem so far-fetched for making the playoffs I would think.
BTW, I hadn't actually run those numbers before posting this reply... I had to edit this a few times to make sure I'd worked the math through properly and present the right conclusions.
Thanks for stopping by and prompting me to actually think about this effect, because I honestly just threw a number up there. :)
Ta,
Posted by: Tom L | Tuesday, 04 October 2005 at 11:57 AM