Bruce Cohen, LP Congressional candidate has
this to say on his website:
At this point in the game, fellow candidates, there are only two things that can budge the needle:
1. Earned Media.
2. Paid Media.
Anything else you do is just a distraction. No amount of bumper stickers, signs, refrigerator magnets or brochures will make the tiniest dent in your opponents vote totals.
Bruce goes on to make some very good points about why money is needed and that becoming a good fundraiser is part of being a good candidate, all of which I agree with. But, the basic premise of the article is wrong.
Money doesn't win you a campaign until you've got the name recognition and political power base to make a difference. money without those things is wasted money. Period. If you're in a three-way race and polling 15%, then media advertising will make a difference in your vote totals, you could break from 15% to 25%. If you're at 1% you'll budge that needle alright... All the way up to 1.5 or 2%. That's the cold truth. We've seen it in the LP dozens of times, and have lost good candidates because of burnout and disappointment. We nearly lost a candidate/activist in Florida last year because he wanted the State Party to show support and throw some amount of money his way because he was under the illusion he could win, when in truth he was just laying a foundation for future runs for office. BTW, the story has a happy ending and he is a candidate again, this time around.
Where I'm from, Gainesville Fl/Alachua County, I saw personally how you can 'budge the needle' with very little money. In 2002, Darrell McCormick ran for Alachua County Commission as a Libertarian. Nearly his entire campaign consisted of him ( and a couple of volunteers) standing on busy intersections in and around Gainesville during morning and evening rush hours with signs. He ended with 8.05% of the vote in a three-way race. For a county with 0.35% Libertarian registration, and the general consensus being that he would get 1-2%, that was definitely 'budging the needle.' BTW, Darrell did no print or TV advertising for the campaign. But, he succeeded in getting his name in front of thousands of eyeballs every day, multiple times, and when it came time to vote for someone, the undecided's, presumably, remembered Darrell and blacked in his bubble.
Ed Braddy won his Gainesville City commission seat by walking his district twice during his campaign. He won handily on the first ballot and the newspapers barely covered his campaign.
Bruce's argument and article is persuasive but also disingenuous and counter-productive. The Badnarik campaign is not a national one, it is thousands of local campaigns staffed by local activists. Whatever they do (short of getting arrested/embarrassing Badnarik or the LP) to get his name in front of people is a great thing, and worthwhile in terms of time invested. Grassroots politics works just fine when you consider the long-term picture. We are not campaigning for any one LP candidate when we're out there doing what we do.... We're campaigning for the candidate that will come along and be able to win because of the work of those before him.
Personally, I don't think Mike Badnarik is that candidate, though I fervently wish here were. Mike's a great guy and a shining example that it doesn't take money or advertising to win an election. But, Mike campaigned for 15 months to be the candidate to help build the party, strengthen it's internal structure, and I believe he succeeded in doing so. The key to his success was not flash-in-the-pan style tactics. It was a slow, steady presence that built through time. His hard work won him the respect of enough delegates to eventually win the nomination. Hard work is what wins elections.
Here in Florida we've told all of our prospective candidates that they must run 3 times, at a minimum, to win. They have to do the very hard work of following up on their contacts between elections, joining local organizations, volunteering for citizen's advisory boards and the like. But, most importantly, they need to connect personally with as many citizens in their districts as possible. Guys like, my friend, Bill VanAllen in Sarasota have done just that. I have not and it is why am a blogger and not a candidate this time around. People vote for people they know. And no knowledge is better than personal knowledge. Advertising is suspect on that point in particular and a political strategy based on it will fail.
It's easy to pay the qualifying fee or put an ad in a newspaper.
It's easy to write an article in a local newspaper.
It's easy to call into the local talk-radio show and pimp yourself
It's easy to give a speech at a political rally where 75% of the attendees are candidates/party officials.
But,
It's hard to stand on a street corner and shake people's hands.
It's hard to ask them to sign a ballot-access petition
It's hard hold a go door to door and ask people to vote for you
It's hard to pick up a phone and ask people to contribute to your campaign (point in Bruce's favor)
So, therefore, a bumper sticker here, a group on a street corner there, a booth at the local arts festival somewhere else. These are the things that will lay the foundation for the advertising you may or may not do. Fund-raising is important, and having raised money does give you legitimacy in the eyes of newspaper editors but it will not create electoral success without an organization to follow up on it. Otherwise, and this point is the most salient, the money spent will be wasted, and could have been much better spent in other ways.
Locally, I've made it plain that the Alachua County Libertarian Party needs to be out on street corners campaigning for Badnarik and our Florida House Candidates, Brooks Nelson (Dist 22) and Ray Roberts (Dist. 23). My personal goal in Alachua county is to get three times the number of registered libertarians in Alachua county to vote for Badnarik...which is currently 488, so around 1500 votes. That would be over 1.2% and unheard of for a Libertarian Presidential Candidate. Darrell McCormick, Brooks, Ron Johnson, John McElligott, Grier Ellis, myself and my wife, Camille, all gave people in this area a chance to vote for a libertarian in 2002, getting them over the biggest hurdle, actually voting for someone other than an R or D. Now, we follow that up.
Remember, it is the illusion of support that creates the kinds of vote totals we see. Advertising certainly helps aid that illusion but it is cerntainly not the ony path to creating/maintaining one.
Ta,
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