Sabre Rattling

Noronen to the A and Some Gold Medal Thoughts

Link: Sabres G Noronen accepts assignment to Rochester -- Page 1 -- TimesUnion.com.

Now that the Olympics are finally over and we can get back to the stretch drive of the regular season its good to see Mika Noronen being smart about trying to up his trade value by finally accepting a conditioning stint down in the AHL with Rochester.

Two guys who we already know are in good shape, Teppo Numinnen and Toni Lydman played their hearts out Sunday morning trying to bring Finland their first Olympic gold medal.  I didn't catch as much of the tournament as I wanted to, but what I did see from the Finns was very impressive.  Going into Turin I had been rooting for Canada (I don't have a whole lot of reason to cheer about being American right now, and the squad itself didn't have me all that excited) but I quickly became enamored of the Finns relentless hustle and discipline (some would acall that The Trap.  Whatever!).  What I didn't know until this afternoon was that the Elder Angry Goat Man's father was the Finnish coach in 1980, the story in the Buffalo News is here.   

Like Eric McErlain, D-Lee, James Mirtle and a few others, I did get up early Sunday morning (5:30am), drive into Gainesville to a friend's house (our local NBC affiliate doesn't grant us the privilege of getting another member of the network on MY satellite dish... I'll save the FCC rant for some other day!), and descended upon their house with muffins and fresh fruit as a peace offering for the use of their television at such an unseemly hour.

It was a great game with a crappy ending.  Congratz to the Swedes, be thankful that Henrik Zetterberg is so young.  He was the best player on the ice for the last two periods and he's going to be awfully lonely in Vancouver.  The Finns, on the other hand, seem to have a bit younder squad.  Numinnen and Selanne are certainly finished (all puns intended, of course) on the Olympic stage, but much of the rest of the team (especially the defense) should still have their prime years within recent memory, while some of hte younger guys, the Jokinen's, for example, were outstanding and will only improve.

As it stands, Numminen still has yet to win a major tournament or a round of the playoffs, and this is something I hope his teammates take to heart over the next 49 days.  One of these days the Repo Man is going to collect.  I say, let it be this year.

Ta,

Down the Back Stretch They Come...

Link: ESPN.com - NHL - NHL Standings.

The Olympic Break started today (dammit), and while it's obvious to everyone that the Sabres more than most teams really need this break in the season to get some people healthy and rested I can't help but think that this might not work to our advantage.   When a team has been playing as consistently as the Sabres have, you hate to break that up with an extended layoff, regardless of how many injuries you're nursing.  That said, though, at least the schedule affords us some hidden breaks.

Looking at the standings linked to above, the boys in the soon-to-be-replaced-if-the-rumors-are-true AGH sweaters have a couple of advantages over the two teams that they will be jostling for playoff position with, namely the Sens and the Flyers.

While the Sabres will play a balanced schedule of 13 games home and away the Sens have to play 14 games on the road, including a brutal stretch right after the break where they'll play 13 games in 21 days.  Within that time they'll have a 6 games in 8 nights on the road.  THe only good news about that trip is that it includes 2 games against Florida and 1 against Washington.  Oif!  Ottawa doesn't get 2 days off in a row until the 22nd and 23rd of March.  If there was ever a time where the Sabres were going to be serious about a run for the Division Lead, it should be then.

The Flyers, on the other hand, have played 2 more games than Buffalo and trail them by two points in the standings comeing into the break.  What's more, they still have 13 games on the road.  The only road trip of note is a swing through the Southeast and Pittsburgh.  Also of note is the 5 (yes, 5) games left against the Devils. 

For the Sabres the schedule has nothing that stands out as being particularly brutal, just 26 games in 49 days like the Sens.  The longest road trip is 3 games while the longest homestand is just 2 games.  There are 5 more meetings between them and the Maple Queefs and 4 more matchups with the Sens. 

Looking over the schedule I would say that every game is a must-win (no shock there) and that once the trade deadline passes I would hope that Lindy uses the expanded roster as a way to rotate people in and out to keep the team as fresh as possible.  One of the other happy outcomes of finding out about all of this depth in the organization is that we have options as to who to dress and who to sit/spell. 

Lasly, I've got to think that there is a significant trade coming.  It won't be a headline grabber, like the Joe Thornton trade, but something vital like the Briere for Gratton deal.  There's been some speculation amongst the HF faithful that the recent play of former 1st rounder Jri Novotny might make him an attractive bundle with either another forward or a goalie to pry loose a top-4 d-man from someone looking to get younger and cheaper...

I'll throw up some trade speculation in another post this week after I've given it a little more thought.  But, now it's time to gear up for the Olympic Tournament. 

Ta,

Sabre-Toothless Tiger Slayers

Well, for the first time this year the boys from Buffalo managed to find a way to beat the Florida Panthers with a 5-3 victory tonight at the HSBC arena.  I'm not sure what it is but the Panthers seem to have our number.  There are certain teams that other teams just can't beat and it's troublesome to me that a team like Florida, who on most nights look like also-rans, always plays like world-beaters against the Sabres. 

To their credit they always attempt to out-work and frustrate the Buffalo breakout, constantly pressuring our defense into coughing up the puck, and for the most part it seems to work like a champ, that coupled with Luongo's normally stellar goaltending usually means we walk off the ice with our heads down wondering what we have to do to beat these guys.   Tonight's game for the most part was no exception to this.  For the first 10 minutes it looked like a carbon copy of every other Florida game this year... sticks everywhere, the Panthers trapping, the Sabres frustrated and jittery putting weak shots into Luongo's mid-section and we're one mistake away from the wheels coming off.

But, unlike the other games we've played against the Cats this season the bounces seemed to go our way early and little things that normally hurt us didn't.  Van Ryn cranking one off the pipe and Dumont's lacrosse-style goal in the 1st period set the tone for the evening.  Though, to me, Ryan Miller looked a little uncomfortable in net and that was a concern for most of the evening until the Sabres put the game out of reach with Vanek's wrap-around that made it 4-2 in the 3rd.

Once we got the Panthers to open up a little bit after Dumont's goal we started to take the game to them and a very pretty play by Max and Roy to set up Jiri Novotny's 1st NHL goal made it feel as if we'd finally solved the Florida trap/jinx.  But, still the Cats are well-coached and are spunky (at least against Buffalo) and clawed their way back to a 2-2 tie with some old-fashioned hard work
by, of all people, Chris Gratton and John Sim. 

There were way too many turnovers and bad neutral zone decisions for a game that, on paper and on the scoreboard, we seemed to dominate.  It took a determined effort by Thomas Vanek on two separate occasions to turn nothing plays into seeing-eye goals to get us this win.  In both cases Vanek made the puck do things it shouldn't have.  He played the 2nd half of this game like a guy with a mission and if he can ring that kind of intensity on a greater percentage of shifts...? Wow!

Notes from the Marginal Underground:

• Jiri Novotny is a well-coached player.  He always has his stick in a place to make a play, both offensively or defensively.  He's always ready to receive a pass or break one up.  I like what I've seen from him so far in the past two games. 
• Roy, Max and Vanek were excellent tonight as they attacked the Florida neutral zone with speed and determination, mixing up their entries and coming at the Florida defense in waves.
• Pyatt's tussle with Montador was great as well.  Pyatt went out of his way to avoid Luongo while driving the net and paid for it by having Montador ride him off face-washing and being stupid.  Pyatt dropped the gloves and very quickly ended the altercation Montador started.  In Chainshot's words from the other day on HF, "Pyatt's a BEAST!"
• Tallinder and Lydman were having a tough night moving the puck out of the zone.  The Panther fore check was giving them both fits all night.   Neither was comfortable with how little time they were being given to make decisions.  It didn't help matters that too often our forwards were cheating away from them reducing their safe options.
• Florida's penalty killing was the most aggressive I've seen this year and lacking our top talent on the PP (Briere, Connolly, Hecht) our response wasn't strong enough to counter it.  Good job by the Cats to not be awed by the Sabres PP and skate aggressively.

All in all, a solid win but also a toothless one as well.  Even while up by 2 goals late in the 3rd the Panthers still seemed to be able to take control of the game at will, which is, of course, a credit to them, but frustrating for us.

Tomorrow's game against Carolina has all the potential to be unbelievably ugly.  No rest, travel, early start, 3rd game in 4 nights, major injuries, an excellent opponent.  I'll be shocked if we skate with the Canes for more than 20 minutes.

Ta,

Embattled from Alberta over Tocchet

The Batle of Alberta -- Rattled

Matt, over at The Batle of Alberta has some great commentary on things I left out of my rant from yesterday.  I'm glad that my little hissy fit has uncovered some others who are at least sympathetic to my vaguely radical stance that people should be able to live in peace without fear of reprisal. 

He rightly points out the Mr. Tocchet's biggest crime is his violating his employment contract with the NHL's prohibition on engaging in illegal activity.  Of course, just to be consistent on that point Dany Heatley should not be able to play hockey for having broken the speed limit while operating an automobile.  :)

Good stuff over there, please check it out.

Ta,

ZOMG! People in Hockey Place Bets!

I don't expect this to be one of my more popular posts, and, possibly might lose me some respect within this circle of commentators.  I've refrained here on many occasions to get into subjects that would draw attention to my political/philosophical views, trying instead to keep the discussion focused primarily on the Sabres in specific and the sport in general.  If anyone wants to know my politics there's a slew of articles here that will elucidate them in painstaking detail. 

So, that said, I find it really sad that Rick Tocchet, et. al. are facing all sorts of charges and, most probably, jail time because of placing bets on sporting events.  Personally, I don't have a lot of respect for the law as a mechanism for dispensing justice.  Hell, that statement alone would take weeks of writing extensively just to parse the words used to convey the depth of meaning that I'm implying.  Defining the word justice alone, outside of the context of human-enforced law is worthy of multiple blog posts in and of itself.

Morality (defined as that which separates right from wrong) cannot be legislated.  Gambling is no more wrong than obeying the speed limit is right.  Both conditions are arbitrarily defined by those who have the privilege to enforce that definition.  So, the fact that this has become an issue is nothing more than noise in the service of the state trying to justify it's own existence and a way for busy-body do-gooders to force their desires and worldview onto someone else.  This is a process I despise, and yet, unfortunately it is de rigeur and becoming even more so everywhere I turn.  The cops involved in this investigation will say that they are only enforcing 'the will of the people,' all of whom they were empowered to 'protect and serve.'   It's disturbing that we no longer have 'peace officers' but 'law enforcement officers.'  There are two fundamentally different functions at play there.  The former are charged with keeping the peace via crime investigation and dispute resolution, while the latter are charged with enforcing the rules.  The former truly serve the people while the latter only serve the rule makers. 

In the same week where Britney Spears is hounded for the non-crime of not having her child in a car seat, we have another non-crime blazing across the headlines in the hockey world, namely a bunch of people getting together and betting with their own money on the outcome of sporting events they are not personally involved in.

Looking at this from an economic perspective, is placing a bet on the outcome of a football game really fundamentally different than choosing to start a business selling shoes?  Both are educated guesses about the future events.. one the relative number of points scored by a football team, the other the amount of money people will spend buying particular shoes.  All of human endeavor is a guess about future events.  Again, why is there a distinction between these types of human behavior, where there is no theft of property (communists please stay quiet, property and profit are not theft no matter how many times you say it!!!!!).

Politically, I belong to a small group of people who consider themselves anarcho-capitalists, and who believe the absolute sovereignty of the individual forms the basis for all constructive and peaceful human endeavors.  Spend some time at the Mises Institute for a primer.

The State of New Jersey is acting like the aggressive bunch of thugs and highwaymen it truly is here.  One of the axioms I live my life by is "Don't Steal (or kill).  The government hates competition."  I find a tremendous amount of irony in the fact that state run lotteries have the worst odds of winning of any game I know of and yet those are legal, while playing roulette or blackjack at a casino is venal and wrong (even though the house odds in those games are 5.26% and ~0.5% respectively, depending on the rules).  One of the bright spots about the rise of Poker as an acceptable activity is that some of the PR damage to the league might be mitigated. 

So, these people will either go to jail or be made to prostrate themselves on the mercy of the public opinion court (doing community service or some other way of 'repaying society,' even though they probably didn't cheat anybody) all for engaging what is a perfectly normal and reasonable human behavior.

So, again, could someone please explain to me why we should give a rat's ass about this? 

Ta,

p.s. I understand James Mirtle's issue with this.  There will be a certain amount of righteous indignation thrown around and false virtuousness pandered to that will be wholly disgusting and nigh inappropriate... along with being highly effective propaganda for the Nanny State.  It will suck for the game, the league, and the fans.  ESPN will have a field day... that piece of leftist shite.

p.p.s.  I'm sure that the police in question have some ulterior motives for leaking this to the public... look for some New Jersey DA to make a run towards a higher office based on this incident.  It's commonplace for DA's to rise politically on the backs of people involved in this kind of 'criminal activity.'  That fascist blowhard Guiliani did it, Eliot Spitzer is following in the sewer Rudy carved and I'm sure there's someone in Jersey wanting to emulate his heroes.  After all, if Spitzer can get Martha Stewart, why can't some other tax-funded leech get The Great One?

p.p.p.s.  If you can't tell, part of the reason I didn't want to comment on this is that it's really no good for my blood pressure.  I stopped blogging about current events and politics because it was too painful and I found my days were ruined after I'd finished a post about some horrible thing done by some F$%ktwit government stooge.  So, I really hope that this doesn't end too badly for those involved but my gut feeling is similar to Mr. Mirtle's, that this is going to be a horrible thing for everyone, including hockey fans.

 

 

A Goose from Fargo? Oh, You Betcha!

Link: NHL.com - In The Spotlight.

Great article on NHL.com about our boy, Goose.  This guy really makes me proud to be a Sabres fan.  It's stories like his and the example he sets that makes following this sport worthwhile.  Let's hope that the attitude expressed by him continues throughout his NHL career, that he never takes what he does for granted.   I don't think that will come to pass, he's had to work way too hard to get to the show and he only seems to be improving as this season goes along. 

"I'm grateful for Buffalo giving me a chance," said Gaustad, who played his junior hockey for the Portland Winter Hawks of the WHL. "I was never listed on anybody's list. I wasn't mentioned by anybody. I didn't know what to expect. I never thought I would be here..."

I will have to beg to differ with Paul about one thing, though.  He was on one person's list... namely erstwhile Sabre Rattling contributor, Chainshot, who's been singing his praises for the past 3 years over on HFBoards.com.   Chain's opinion carries a tremendous amount of weight with me, so when he mentions a prospect of ours in glowing terms, my ears prick up in anticipation.  He was right about Goose all along and by the time camp opened we were all pulling for him to make the squad.  I know I was, and I'd never seen the guy play hockey.

Once I did, though, I understood.  He's been instrumental to this team's success and along with his work ethic he's a smart player.  Nearly always, he makes the right play with the puck.  His game isn't fancy, it's consistent and it's tough as nails.  In a world where so many bad people seem to succeed, it's refreshing to watch someone bust their ass and be rewarded for it.

Ta,

Underdogs No Longer: Sabres Knock off Sens in Shootout

Link: ESPN.com - NHL - Screen Shots: Sabres Biggest Underdogs.

This is a game we needed to play the way we played it.  It was a tough, physical, end-to-end game.  From the Peters/McGrattan tilt early in the first to Vanek's sick move to freeze Hasek and go... where else(?)...glove-gide high, this was a preview of the playoffs-to-come and I don't care what anyone else says, I'm looking forward to it with all of my being.

Buffalo vs. Ottawa, Saturday February 4th:

Coming into this game there were a lot of lingering questions about the Sabres in my mind.  I wanted to believe that they could skate with the Sens, they did.  As well, I wanted to believe we finally had a collection of shooters who could put a puck past Hasek.  Kotalik's one-timer was other-worldly.  Lastly, I wanted to believe that we could match whatever level the Sens took the game to and best it.  There were times in the 1st and 3rd period where I thought that the Sabres completely dictated the play.

What I believe now is that this Sabres squad is capable of all of those things and a few more.  With the return of Pyatt and Dumont this team has more edge, more sand.  With every game he plays Ryan MIller is solidifying his stranglehold on the Buffalo crease, and beginning to erase the disappointments of the past seasons and purge the ghost of Dom, with no biger step taken towards doing so than out dueling him in tonight's shootout. 

From the middle of the third period on, I knew this game was going to the shootout, I just felt it in my bones.  I didn't think either team would be able to break through the other's committment to not allowing another goal.  The Ottawa penalty killers were amazing in the third.  I've lost none of my respect for the club John Muckler has given Brian Murray to coach.  I've only gained respect for the squad that wears the sweaters I love to root for. 

Points of Interest:

• Jason Pominville and Paul Gaustad have truly arrived as NHL'ers.  Both were all over the ice tonight doing all the things that were expected of them and som that weren't.  Remember, I haven't seen a game in nearly amonth, and the difference for me was striking.
• Taylor Pyatt is beginning to show bits of being the power forward he was drafted to be.  And, he is a lot faster skater than I remember him being. 
• Ryan Miller has developed ice water in his veins.  At the beginning of the season I was still very worried about his mental toughness.  I don't worry about that anymore.  He has become nigh-unflappable. 
• The Sens ability to counterpunch is downright scary.  I noticed a lot fewer drop-passes and cute moves at their blueline late in the game than there were earlier.  It was trying to be fancy that got us into trouble against them earlier in the season and after a couple of attempts by Roy and, I think, Max early in the game I didn't see much of that after that stuff almost landed the puck in the back of our net.
• Our Power Play could survive the loss of Briere, but it can't survive losing Timmah! as well.  Connolly brings that rare combination of strength along the boards to control the puck and make the great pass to settle the power play down to set plays up. 
• This was Andrew Peters best game as a Sabre, and it was a great move by him to take mercy on McGrattan after breaking his nose and drawing blood.  Maybe we should send a tape of that to The Kaspar-fish, he might learn something.
• My heart couldn't take a 7 game series between these two teams.

That's two huge victories in the past 2 games, thoroughly out-skating the Flyers and playing Ottawa to a stand-still. For this effort we'll probably drop in the TSN standings because Kalinin got injured. 

Ta,

p.s. Don't just take my word for this, check out The Mirtle's thoughts on seeing the game live here.   Pay close attention to his praise for Goose and JPom.  My eyes misted over... :)

Around the NHL Commentary

Link: Hockey Rants.

First off there is Jes Golbez's first pass at a statistical analysis of correlating a variety of common shibboleths and winning.  It's a good read, please check it out.  Jes also asks for some suggestions (which I made in the comments section), but I'd like to say some other things as well here.  His analysis suggests something that Tom Benjamin brought up a while ago about Puck Possession, and how hockey ain't a game of it, but rather Puck Position, which is something I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Benjamin about.

Of the 8 statistics compared by Mr. Golbez, Face-Off % was only bested by Hits as being the least correlated with winning.  Most Face-offs have very little overall impact on the outcome of the game.  During any one game there may only be a handful out of the multiple dozens of face-offs which are tactically important or invested with great weight and urgency.    So, to me, it's no surprise whatsoever that this combined with Tom B.'s excellent analysis of where the puck is being far more important than who has it yields up the result of there being no meaningful correlation between winning face-offs and winning games.   

I suggested to Jes, though, that looking at, not only PP%, but that in conjunction with PP differential might have yield some interesting results. 

More Adams award Discussion -- Peter L and the Canes

Next up is a thread on HF that made some of the cells in my brain attempt to make sparks.  Not surprisingly the comment by Chainshot in response to someone suggesting that Laviolette has not done as good a job as Ruff because he inherited the Canes was the catalyst:

The Canes do NOT play Paul Maurice's system any longer however. Laviolette has them playing an up-tempo speed and puck-control game that is about as far from PM's trap-ee-ness as can be. Ruff's adapted (though the defense mindset is still there and more evident as the games progress), but Laviolette has as well. He, Ruff and Renney have all done very well with what the pundits claimed were also ran lineups. The teams they "inherited" were predicted to be cellar dwellers en masse, so whatever they have done has been noteworthy. That Laviolette has also foster the offensive explosion from Staal and found a way to re-kindle Brindy's "A" game is nearly worth the award just as coaching accomplishments.

It's the last bit that got me thinking.  I stated the other day that Lavalamp's job is made easier because he has a bona-fide superstar on his roster while Ruff does not (although with the way Miller's been playing that statement is now highly specious).  I still stand by that.  I don't think Peter L. can take all the credit for that happening, it has to come from the player ultimately.  But, that said, the point isn't about Staal directly but the cascade effect he has all through the Canes roster.  Him emerging as the dominant #1 centerman makes all the other centers on the roster better.

Brind'amour's situation has multiple angles.  First, it's obvious that Rod used the lockout as an opportunity to truly get healthy for the first time in years.  He's had a tough few seasons prior to this one physically, and he's one of those guys for whom the lockout was a blessing (in a way).  Added to that is the Staal effect which now means Rod can go back to playing his normal role of #2/#3 pivot as opposed to being The Man, which wasn't working.  His workload got even easier this year with the Staal effect cascading through him to Matt Cullen.   Now, granted Laviolette has a tremendous amount to do with all of this, but taking advantage of having a legit superstar and that kind of depth down the middle does make for some less restless sleep at night, or at a minimum allow him to concentrate on other issues. 

With the addition of Doug Weight, the only issue now is ice-time.  Carolina might have the best crop of centers in the NHL right now. 

By contrast Ruff's only real #1 centerman has been injured since November, and yet, the Sabres keep winning.  As Connolly grew into the role that Briere played, Ruff and the team adjusted.  With the injury to Connolly and Hecht moving over to take his place (and doing a damn fine job I might add)  the Sabres almost look like they're getting stronger.   Both teams are beginning to peak right now and the real test for us comes Saturday evening.  If we can skate with the Sens for 60 minutes that would be an improvement over the previous 3 games, even if they lose. 

In the end it will be an interesting race to see who gets the Curse of the Jack Adams.  I won't complain too much as long as it is one of Ruff, Renney or the Lavalamp.

Delay of Game Too Harsh?

Joe Tasca over at Offwingopinion has some criticism of the automagic Delay of Game penalty for defensemen shooting the puck into the stands.  I got involved in that discussion earlier and bought up the non-call on The Kaspar-fish that led almost directly to Mario's miracle goal back in 2002. 

One responder suggested that a 2 minute penalty is too harsh and that making the punishment equal to icing the puck (no changes for the defensive team), which, I could probably live with but am still not a fan of completely.  If anything the Goalies should be the ones who force a defensive-zone draw without a personnel change as they really aren't required to be good puckhandlers to be good goalies. 

On the other hand, defensemen do, which brings me to my final point on this (from my final comment in the thread):

[Defensemen} they know how to use their sticks to play the puck, it's essential to their game... therefore, in my mind, the number of penalties given out this year for this infraction just shows me how big the discrepancy was between intentions and penalties called.

My Tae Kwon Do instructor used to say, "You do only what you train. If you train half the technique then that's what you'll throw." Well, if defensemen are putting pucks in stands at situationally-convienient times... well, they must have trained themselves to do it.

The more I think about this the more I think that there are a helluva lot fewer accidents than we might be willing to admit there are.  I understand and don't like it when this rule puts a team down 2 men either, but part of me thinks that this, like hooking and obstruction are just learned habits that need to be unlearned.  I say give it at least another year before changing the rule.  If anything change the rule for the goalies because some of those guys are just god-awful puck-handlers.  But, I'm sorry, I've seen defensemen who can rifle a one-timer from the blue-line through a 2 inch gap between the shoulder pads and the cross-bar who then turn around and flip the puck out of play 'accidently.' 

Somehow, I'm just not buying that.... not for any price.

Ta,