Sabre Rattling

Before this season even started the talk around the NHL was how can the Sabres keep both of their captains after this season. This talk has been made by a bunch of sharks (the rest of the league) circling the freshly-thrown chum (

Buffalo

) with multiple rows of teeth flashing all the while trying to hide them behind a thin veneer of sympathy. Obviously, this guy ain't buying it.

Well, in my mind, there is a way to do this. It was reported on the Hotstove tonight that a starting point for discussions with Daniel Briere would be a 5 year, $25 million contract. This is really no big stretch, and frankly, I wonder if the reported in question (Eric D.) actually talked with anyone or is just repeating 'conventional wisdom,' because, honestly, I think the Briere camp knows that there is someone out there willing to throw larger dollar figures than that his way. Ditto for Drury. Those numbers go higher if this team wins it all this June.

But, with the new year staring in around 21 hours (too much coffee during tonight's win over Hotlanta for me) and with it the negotiating period for Cap'n Danny, I thought it would be timely and appropriate to discuss how Darth Regier could pull off his little coup and save his boat from being capsized by the feeding frenzy that would ensue this July 1st. Using the numbers from Irish Blues cap page this is what I have in mind for the Sabres next season:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Player	Position	2007-08   Cap Hit	Transaction
Briere, Daniel	C	$5,000,000	Signed 5   yrs.
Drury, Chris	C	$5,000,000	Signed 5   yrs.
Gaustad, Paul	C/LW	$712,500
Connolly, Tim	C	$2,900,000
Novotny, Jiri	C	$500,000	Signed 2   yrs.
Afinogenov, Maxim	RW	$3,333,333
Kotalik, Ales	RW	$2,333,333
Pominville, Jason	RW	$1,033,333
Stafford, Drew	RW	$984,200
Mair, Adam	RW	$625,000	Signed 1   yr.
Roy, Derek	C/LW	$2,666,667	Signed 3   yrs.
Vanek, Thomas	LW	$3,500,000	Signed 4   yrs.
Paille, Daniel	LW	$650,000	Signed 2   yrs.
MacArthur, Clarke	LW	$686,667
Hecht, Jochen	LW	$2,200,000	Traded
Spacek, Jaroslav	D	$3,333,333
Lydman, Toni	D	$2,875,000
Tallinder, Henrik	D	$2,562,500
Kalinin, Dmitri	D	$2,000,000
Campbell, Brian	D	$1,500,000
Sekera, Andrej	D	$675,000
Paetsch, Nathan	D	$495,000	Signed 1   yr.
Miller, Ryan	G	$2,666,667
Backup Goalie	G	$600,000
	SubTotal   =	$48,832,533
	Total   after Trades =	$46,632,533

 

Notes: Those listed in grey are

UFA

’s after this season, while those listed in Blue are RFA’s. Everyone else is signed.

 

With the salary cap reportedly rising again to between $46 and $47 million, this plan positions the Sabres right at that level. Given that situation, if the team has the opportunity to get both Drury and Briere to agree to identical contracts listed above, then it makes sense to part ways with someone as valuable as Jochen Hecht. Under contract for a reasonable amount of money, Hecht should fetch the highest return at the draft table. If one of the two captains wants any more than the money listed above then I don’t think those guys are worth running a 21 man roster (like this season) or losing a promising young player like Paille or McArthur. 

 

The subtractions from this year’s squad are Marty Biron, Teppo Numminen, Andrew Peters and Jochen Hecht. They are replaced by Drew Stafford, Andrej Sekera, Daniel Paille, Clarke McArthur and a capable backup for Ryan Miller. 

 

Along with signing Briere and Drury, the other, and possibly more difficult, problems will be figuring out just how much of a raise Vanek and Roy deserve. 

Roy

has arbitration rights and is probably looking at Mike York/J.P. Dumont money ($2.8 - $3.0 million). If Regier can entice him a little lower over 3 years that would be great. Vanek, though, is more difficult and there are already people thinking that he’s worth more than $4 million next year. I don’t think so, not with Max only making $3.33 million (if there’s a better bargain than either Afinogenov or Pominville… I want to know). I’m inclined to offer more years to keep the cap figure lower. $14 million over 4 years for a player like him without arbitration rights would send the right message to everyone. It would also protect them against someone trying to poach him on an offer sheet, unless they wanted to hand Regier two 1^st rounders, a 2^nd and a 3^rd. Is Vanek worth that much to a team like Philly or even

Toronto

, both of whom could use a big, strong franchise like winger.

 

This Blog is Moving....

Link: Sabre Rattling.

As I hinted at recently, this blog has been in the process of moving to the friendly and comfortable environs of the SabresReport.com, as effectively, their kept fan.  Scott Sarama made the offer to me a couple of weeks back and we've been working on developing the new site into something familiar but superior in look and feel to the current one.

I'd appreciate that those who come there from here will use www.sabrerattling.com as their pointer from here forward.  And, of course, to those of you who've been kind enough to add this site to their blogrolls please update those to reflect the new URL. 

It's been a great experience working on this blog so far and the response to it has been nothing short of amazing.  I'm consistenly humbled by how much people enjoy my mostly aimless ramblings and marginal analysis.  The addition of my longtime compatriot over at HF, mdoak, should help to create a fresh and different perspective on all things Angry-Goat-related.

I look forward to y'alls reaction to the new site, so, please drop a note at the Roll Call.

  So, until then, as Red Green used to say, "Keep yer stick on the ice."

Ta,

The Big Easy in Ottawa

Link: Buffalo News - Sabres go down effortlessly.

.... for the Ottawa Senators that is... and, well, for the Buffalo Sabres too, because if they continue to show the same lack of intensity, effort, and discipline in every game of this magnitude it'll be easy to predict the outcome come playoff time.

'Collectively sh?%^ing the bed,' as my counterpart at Hockey Country so eloquently put it, the Sabres were out played, hustled, worked, shot, hit, scored and classed in the first half of this game.  Only after Max beat Ray Emery on the short side did the Sabres begin to even look like they belonged in the same building as the Sens.  Up until that point Ryan Miller had been outstanding giving up 3 goals when he could have easily have given up twice that many and no one would have blamed him.  To be honest though, it didn't seem to me that Ottawa was getting a ton of outstanding shots as MSG flashed the Scoring Chances around the time of the Sabres' goal giving Ottawa the edge 9-3 even though they were outshooting the Sabres something like 27-6 at that point. 

The shift that produced Max's goal was the first one where the Sabres looked dangerous, actually getting through the neutral zone with speed and determination.  It was started by a great play by Derek Roy, one of the few people who got off the bus last night with the intention of outworking the Senators.  I've made mention of Roy's strength recently and last night confirmed those thoughts.  He and Danny Briere were the two guys trying to will the Sabres back into this game, and they nearly succeeded. 

To shift gears here for a minute and focus on the Senators, it was obvious to me that Bryan Murray sensed the Sabres' disinterest and sought to put them out of their misery early by feeding them a very steady diet of the Top 2 lines in the first period.  It seemed to me that every time I turned around Spezza and Heatley were on the ice.  Of course, it didn't help matters that the Sabres couldn't stay out of the box (regardless of the quality of the officiating).  The Sabres didn't really have an answer for them and were constantly hemmed in their own end, which was as much a function of the ferocious forechecking of the Sens and the lack of puck support exhibited by our forwards, who repeatedly left the zone before our defensemen even had control of the puck, no less a clear passing lane out of the zone.  So, multiple turnovers came from the D trying to move the puck to no one.   By the time the Sens went up 3-0 I was watching this game only to see how the Sabres responded to the situation, not expecting (or really even wanting) them to win the game, it was now important for them to lift themselves up during this game and try to contend.

Flashing forward to the 3rd period where Daniel Briere proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a star in this league; one of the most talented and tenacious players in all 3 zones.  Watching this game on TV you could see how badly he, personally, wanted this game, even when his teammates were letting him down.  Multiple times I saw him go in deep, challenge for the puck in the corner and foil Ottawa's breakout/turn the puck over to begin a cycle.  The second PP goal was a direct result of Briere's gutsy performance, setting the stage to lift his team on his shoulder's and bodily bring them back into contention.  I would not doubt that he personally apologized to Ryan Miller between periods.  ;)

Once this became a 3-2 game, it also became the Sabres.  Only then did they begin to attack the Sens, not playing with timidity and inordinate respect for the Sans.  And, it is here that Sabres fans can take comfort and Sens fans should be worried because the Sens were given (rightly or wrongly) every opportunity to put this game away and bury the Sabres and they didn't.  After the Sabres PP goal i knew they wouldn't get another one for the rest of the game.  The lengthy 5 on 3 that was gift-wrapped to the Sens which was almost personally killed off by Derek Roy and Ryan Miller to keep the game close may possibly be a turning point for a couple of players in our organization. 

In the end it wasn't our night, and it should not have been... the Senators deserved their two points, but in no way was the outcome of this game indicative of anything other than that the last 3 meetings between these teams should be doozies.  I don't think the Sens have another gear.  They threw everything they had at a Sabres squad playing with a stick in their ass and a quiver in their stomachs and only won 3-2.  My feeling is that if, and this is a HUGE if, the Sabres come out and play their best game against this Ottawa squad that we destroy them in a Big Easy of our own.

The burning question, of course, is are they capable of playing that game?  Until the next meeting my answer to that is "I have no idea."

Ta,

Oooo Sweet Nuthin....

And this is what he said
Oh sweet nuthin'
She ain't got nothing at all

Well, so far, its been a great regular season so far in western NY. Wins are being pulled out of nowhere, points are getting piled up, and Buffalo is winning for the first time in years.  But, if i may paraphrase the immortal words of Velvet Underground, Buffalo ain't got nothing at all.  Lets say Buffalo wins the division. Whats it really worth?  Nothing.  Win the conference?  Not worth a damn.  Win the president's trophy?  Ooo, look, a worthless piece of hardware.  Don't get me wrong, this team has proven alot, they've stuck together, played hard, and won games in all sorts of ways.  They've proved their regular season mettle and gone on played a way all the media and most fans didn't think this team stood a chance of playing before the season started: With heart, determination, and a will to win we haven't seen in Buffalo in a long time.  But in the end, all of this is worthless.   What matters, more than anything, is how this team does with all the chips on the table.  If Buffalo grabs the #1 seed in the east, what will it matter if they are outed in 6 games by some plucky underdog with a hot goalie?  All the cries of "I love this team" and "This team is special" will mean nothing if this team doesn't fight its way through some hard fought rounds and come out victorious.  Ask Chris Drury what the goal of the team is.  Or ask any Ottawa fan what a good regular season means.  And my best guess is your going to hear the same thing.  The regular season don't mean shiznit come late april and may. 

The best thing I can bring myself say about this regular season is that Buffalo has put themselves in a position to do well in the post season.  Buffalo is probably going to get home ice for at least one round, a great accomplishment.  But home ice is something that can be snatched away from you if you drop the 1st home game in any series. My real hope is whatever comes out of the locker room no matter where they stand at the end of the regular season, that we hear "well, we really haven't done anything yet" or "This is nice, I'm proud of it, but this isn't our goal".  I don't want to see crazy celebration if Buffalo clinches they division, conference, or the presidents trophy. I hope the team really understands what is important for this club, and that making the playoffs/winning the division/winning the conference is simply a means to an end, not the end itself.  Judging from the past experience of Buffalo playoff teams with Ruff at the helm, I really think that is what we will see.  A calm, controlled team who understands that this 82 games has been mearly to put themselves in a spot to succeed come late april. And that, for me, is very comforting. 

Spring Lawn Care has Started

Link: WGR 550 : Sabres Down Leafs For Eighth Win In A Row.

Last night the boys from Buffalo and the Maple Buds played the first of 5 games on the schedule between now and the end of the regular season.  Completely unlike the 4 previous games where offense was the de rigeur last night defense reigned supreme.  Jim Lorentz noted on multiple occasions that the Leafs were playing a very defensively committed game (and that they should be commended for it).  I'm sure that for the first time in a while the individuals on that squad actually listened to their coach when he told them that the only way they would have a chance at winning this game was to try and shut down the Sabres on the rush.  If Pat Quinn did indeed tell his guys that then the problem in Toronto isn't the coach, as Mike Robitaille pointed out during the 1st intermission, it's the personnel.

From my vantage point, it's a bit of both.  The Leafs, night in and night out, are not a terribly disciplined bunch, and haven't been since Quinn took over.  That said, there are a few guys on that squad who probably don't listen no matter what is being said.  *cough* McCabe *cough*

What was surprising last night was how hard a time the Sabres were having with the Sundin line considering that really none of the other lines made any impression on me whatsoever.  In games past this season it's been Steen, Ponikarovsky and Wellwood who've been the engine driving the Buds. Last night, it all came from Mr. Gold Medal himself Mats Sundin.

But, hell, enough about the Queefs, let's talk about the guys that matter... you know, the ones who've won 8 in a row and who've only lost once in regulation since January 21st against Calgary.  With Props going to Tim Thomas over in Boston, we now sit just one point out of the division lead setting up near frenzied anticipation for the Saturday evening tilt against the Sens.  With 10 out of the last 18 games left against teams named Ottawa, Carolina and Toronto there will be no resting on our laurels coming into the playoffs.  I just hope this team hasn't peaked too early.

Timmah! didn't play last night and that is a function of the depth of this organization.  If we were in Tampa or Montreal's shoes, Connolly dresses last night, just like Miller gets pulled in the game on Tuesday against the Caps.  Hecht re-injured his knee last night.  No one's talking about it being serious but again, there's no real need to rush him back into the lineup, especially if Connolly is ready to go for Saturday.  In great news, Adam Mair has begun skating with the team again,
with a possibility of being cleared for contact soon.  We're going to need his snarl during the playoffs.  It may be necessary to dress an honest-to-god shutdown line at some point, and I nominate Mair-Goose-Pyatt for the job.

Dmitri Kalinin  was excellent last night, it looks like the fire is returning to his belly.  He's moving forward with purpose, taking the body, playing strong along the boards and contributing on offense.  He saw a bunch of Power play time last night, which I can only believe is because of our ignominious short-handed goals against statistic.  Come playoff time the use of guys like JPom and Big Al on the points of the PP may cost us a game/series.  Having Tri man the left point with Numminen (his current partner) allows us to put out an effective unit with no loss of defensive responsibility.  As far as his work on the power play, well, his decision making will improve with his confidence.  Multiple times last night Drury and Numminen set him up for a big one-timer and he didn't take it, instead corralling the puck and faking the slapper only to move the puck around to set someone else up.  I'd like to see him take that shot once in a while, and I'm sure Lindy Ruff would too. Tri played nearly 20 minutes last night and it's obvious that Ruff is giving him every opportunity to regain his 2003-04 form, and surpass it.  So far, so good.

The game-winner by Mike Griere was both a thing of beauty and incredibly ugly.  The ugly comes from the horrible defensive 'effort' by Aki Berg an d Tellqvist's rebound control while the beauty-thing was Griere's sticking with the play to pot biscuit. 

Chris Drury's 3-point effort was much needed as well, and on a rare occasion, Mr Clutch was a plus player tonight (+2).  On a night where we got killed in the faceoff circle (Wellwood was an eye-popping 7-1 on draws) Drury's 9 of 19 stands out as exemplary.

That's all for now... except to say that there are some changes in the works around here including a makeover, move and addition to the staff (staff... now that's comedy!).  All will be revealed at the proper time, and suffice it to say that I expect these changes to be for the better so that this site can provide better coverage of the stretch run and the playoffs.

Ta,

HFBoards - Avatar Madness

Link: HFBoards - Avatars.

If anyone ever doubted why I hang out over at HF with the Sabres regulars (you guys rock,BTW) this thread which started out so tamely should dispel them.  Warning... it's 12 pages as of this writing.

It's one of those great moments of internet creativity/insanity, like the arhchives of alt.pave.the.earth ( the glory days are the mid-90's... yes, I'm that old), that should be shared.

The boards haven't been this lively in years, amazing what a little thing like winning does to people.

Ta,

Putting the Pieces Back Together

Link: Buffalo News - Kalinin hopes to continue rebound.

Much spleen was vented last week over the Sabres not adding a bit of depth on the blueline, and to be honest, the lack of a capable right-hander in case of injury is this team's biggest weakness (thanks Chain...).   Butt that said, the decision to do nothing with the defensive corps had as much to do with the healing of Dmitri Kalinin's head as his shoulder.  By not making a move (and considering the price tags of some of the guys out there... a major one) for a Willie Mitchell or Eric Weinrich the Sabres sent a loud and thoughtful message to one of their own. 

A lot has been made about the chemistry in the room with this team.  It's been repeated by so many people so many times you have to wonder if they've memorized a script written by a member of Bush's speech-writing team... presumably without allt the lying, uh, I mean 'reality-making.'  But, if you look at this decision from that point of view, it certainly fits. 

Tri, no matter his struggles, is a member of this family and negative reinforcement hasn't really worked with him so far this year.  It might have worked in the past, but not this year.  So, Darth Regier and his not-so-young apprentice made the decision to stick by him by not moving him to a confirmed #7 on the depth chart. 

By stating with confidence in public that he's more than capable of being a better player than anyone who was available has already paid dividends.  He was strong in his own zone tonight and I like him paired with Marx Brother #5 a lot.  He put a huge hit on the Mighty Ovechkin (what a other-worldly player he is... *sigh*) to separate him from the puck and negate a scoring chance late in the 3rd and the game in doubt.  We hadn't seen that from Tri in a long time, and it brought a smile to my face.

At the beginning of the season I was convinced he'd be our team MVP.  That's obivously not true so far, and I'll gladly admit error there.  But, that said, he still has time left to become the team's Most Important Player when things matter most, the playoffs. 

Ta,

p.s. If Ruff is able to bring Tri back to his 2003-04 form in 22 games, that's just another datapoint in his favor for the Curse of the Jack Adams Trophy. 

Sympathy for Lindy Ruff and his Family

Link: United Press International - Consumer Health - Caregiving: Sabres show how it's done.

The above link is a wonderful article concerning the situation with Lindy Ruff's daughter and the mass on her brain.  The author brings a lovely personal touch to the subject which I appreciated.  Common decency, of course, demands a comment from everyone attached to the Sabres in even the most peripheral of ways (and nothing is more peripheral than being a fan 1200 miles away).  So, I'll gladly offer up my sympathies and positive thoughts on the matter.

For me, this is yet another instance of either a friend, acquaintence or family member coming down with a severe medical problem in the past few months.  No less than 4 people I know (including a very good friend ) have been diagnosed with some form of cancer, some mild and easily treated/beaten, one life threatening and one terminal. 

Please don't mistake this post for a plea for sympathy or anything like that because it isn't.  I only mention these things because it underscores just how fragile our lives are and I wanted to remind the regular readers of this space to cherish what you have.  Be thankful for what comes to you and don't lament those that don't (too much). 

The wife is now lass than 6 weeks to her due date of our first child and doing great... and I think that's all that needs to be said about where my head is here.  For my part I hope that Madeline comes through this without any lasting effects.  I'd hate for Lindy and his family to have to go through what mine (and especially my mom) went through last fall with my sister's illness. 

I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

Ta,

p.s. The Sabres came back in the 3rd period tonight to beat the Caps 6-4 despite some lazy defensive zone coverage and very sub-par goaltending early on by Ryan Miller. 

A Couple of Barn Burners

Between Thursday's annual "No Defense Here" Classic against the Lightning and this afternoon's apparent (and I say apparent as I forgot the game was a 2pm start time and was out with the wife) stinker from Ryan Miller the Sabres are certainly giving the fans in the seats something to get excited about.... The coaches, on the other hand, have got to be wondering just how many times they're going to have to repeat the mantra about how games leading up to the playoffs will get more and more tightly played.

I'm sorry I missed the game against the Flyers this afternoon.  As apparently three different Sabres teams showed up.  In the first period the sloppy, overly-cute Sabres-Peeps had their chance to strut their stuff and did their level best to spot the Flyers to a 2-0 lead.  In the 2nd the Edmonton Sabres showed up, outscoring the Flyers 4-3 with Ryan Miller doing his best Grant Fuhr impression... unfortunately that would be the 1998 Grant Fuhr and not the one that actually played with the Oilers back in the 80's.  In the 3rd the same team that beat Philly earlier in the year showed up (minus Rya Miller), apparently outskating and outworking the Flyers, drawing penalties, outshooting them 13-1 and outscoring them 2-0, with Mike Gri-ere potting the game-winner with just 4 seconds left.  In my mind that's karmic payback for tying the 'Canes the other night with 0.4 secs left and eventually beating them in the shootout.

Points of interest:

• Derek Roy has 2 hat tricks in as many weeks.  He's been playing with tenacity and fire.  He's had a hard look to him recently.  You can see it in his eyes. 
• Dmitri Kalinin and Tim Connolly both returned from their injuries.  Tri was paired with Teppo Numminen against Tampa the other night, and didn't look too bad.  He's comfortable on the left side and Numminen's game is simple and direct, which should help to ease Tri back into the lineup while he rebuilds his confidence
• Speaking of Teppo, he finally bulged the twine for the Sabres, having compiled an NHL record 32 assists before finally doing so.  Props to the Repo Man.
• Ryan Miller has finally showed a couple of cracks in his game.  According to the boys on HF, Philly victimized him a few times today glove-side high. He was replaced in the 3rd by Marty Biron, who got no real work, seeing only 1 shot.
• Maxim Afinogenov was benched in the 2nd half of the Tampa game.  He was notably brutal with the puck in his own zone.  I have no idea how bad he played today but with the return of everyone from the M.A.S.H. unit, his ice-time is going to decrease, especially if he isn't going to put out the effort or use his linemates.
• The Briere/Hecht/Dumont line has been simply amazing.  They scored a couple of goals on the rush against Tampa on Thursday that could best described as 'too easy.'  4 points for Hecht today. 

As much as I love the flurry of goals for, more defensive efforts like the 3rd period need to be forthcoming if the boys are going to be serious in their chasing Ottawa for the division title.

Ta,

Noronen to the 'Nucks

Link: TSN : nhl - Canada's Sports Leader.

Bon Voyage and all the best to you Mr. Noronen, I'm sure everyone is relieved that you finally get the chance to have a career as a goaltender.  The return was the same (in essence) as the offer Darth Regier turned down from Don Waddell in October, a 2nd round pick in this year's draft.  Which 2nd round pick (the Canucks or the Isles) is unknown by me at this time.  If it's the Isles' pick than that is a solid return and a far better resutl than having to potentially faced Mika 4 times a year.  Regier is ruthless in his dealings with his assets, and everyone knows this.  With the team playing well Noronen's plight didn't have to be resolved, so there was no reason for a deal to be made any earlier than it did.  It didn't behoove the organization to trade him off until it was absolutely in their best interest to do so.  BTW, I'm sure last month Dave Nonis was not offering a 2nd round pick of any sort for Mika.

In the end, the price for a backup goalie was a lot lower than the price for depth defensemen.  As guys like Willie Mitchell and Denis Gauthier went for a afar higher price than I would have expected Regier to pay.  So, in the end,the only help we are getting on defense is the return of Dmitri Kalinin from a shoulder injury.  This along with the only real locker room distraction, which is a stretch to say considering Noronen didn't even have a locker, has been dealt with.

As for my deadline predictions?  Well, the surprises to me were that neither Cujo nor Luongo were moved, what else is there to say?  Had either one moved, I'm sure Mika and a guy like Novotny or Paetch would be wearing a different sweater and we'd have our defensman....oh well, that's not the way things worked out.

With all of the guys getting healthy now, it's like we've added a whole slew of help at the deadline.  That kind of depth is truly its own reward.

Ta,